Effects of various modeling uncertainty parameters on the seismic response and seismic fragility estimates of the aging
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Effects of various modeling uncertainty parameters on the seismic response and seismic fragility estimates of the aging highway bridges Huihui Li1,2 · Lifeng Li1 · Guojie Zhou3 · Liang Xu4 Received: 20 September 2019 / Accepted: 13 August 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract This paper proposes an alternative time-dependent seismic fragility assessment framework for aging highway bridges considering the non-uniform chloride-induced corrosion and various modeling uncertainty parameters. Firstly, sensitivity analysis with the tornado diagram technique is performed to determine the sensitivity of some typical bridge engineering demand parameters (EDPs) to 22 modeling related uncertain parameters, and then 10 critical parameters are identified. Subsequently, based on a series of nonlinear time history analyses (NLTHAs) on the sample models generated by using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method, comparative studies for the time-invariant and time-evolving seismic response, as well as the time-dependent seismic fragility estimates incorporating different levels of uncertainty are performed, respectively. It is concluded that (1) the uncertainty of the modeling related uncertain parameters may lead to the difference in the trajectory of seismic hysteretic response for a given bridge member, whereas the variation of the peak value of seismic response may result from the couple contributions of the uncertainty of ground motions and modeling related parameters; (2) the inclusion of only ground motion uncertainty is inadequate and inappropriate, and the proper way is to incorporate the uncertainty of the identified critical modeling parameters and ground motions into the timeevolving seismic response and the time-dependent seismic fragility assessment of the deteriorating highway bridges. Keywords Bridges · Time-dependent seismic fragility analysis · Modeling uncertainty parameters · Sensitivity analysis · Tornado diagram · Chloride-induced corrosion
* Lifeng Li [email protected] 1
College of Civil Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, China
2
The City College of City University of New York, New York, NY, USA
3
Department of Civil Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China
4
College of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China
13
Vol.:(0123456789)
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
1 Introduction In the probabilistic seismic risk and fragility analysis framework, it is highly likely that various sources of uncertainty such as structural geometric, material and boundary conditions related parameters exist due to the structure-to-structure (STS) variation in the development of seismic fragility curves, particularly when the generated vulnerability curves are utilized for the regional seismic risk assessment of highway bridges (Padgett and DesRoches 2007; Mangalathu and Jeon 2018). According to Kiureghian and Ditlevsen (2009), all sources of uncertainty can be categorized into either aleatory uncertainty or epistemic uncertainty. The former mainly stems from
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