Empirical vulnerability curves for Italian mansory buildings: evolution of vulnerability model from the DPM to curves as
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Empirical vulnerability curves for Italian mansory buildings: evolution of vulnerability model from the DPM to curves as a function of accelertion Giulio Zuccaro1 · Francesca Linda Perelli1 · Daniela De Gregorio1 · Francesco Cacace1 Received: 30 January 2020 / Accepted: 8 September 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract In the framework of the emergency management in the case of seismic events, the evalu‑ ation of the expected damage represents a basic requirement for risk informed planning. Seismic risk is defined by the probability to reach a level of damage on given exposed elements caused by seismic events occurring in a fixed period and in a fixed area. To this purpose, the expected seismic input, the exposed elements and their vulnerability have to be correctly evaluated. The aim of the research is to define a correct model of vulnerabil‑ ity curves, in PGA, for masonry structures in Italy, by heuristic approach starting from damage probability matrices (DPMs). To this purpose, the PLINIVS database, containing data on major Italian seismic events, has been used and supported by “critical” assumption on missing data. To support the reliability of this assumption, two vulnerability models, considering or not the hypothesis on the missing data, have been estimated and used to calculate the seismic scenario of the L’Aquila 2009 earthquake through the IRMA (Italian Risk MAp) platform. Finally, a comparison between the outcomes elaborated by IRMA platform and the observed damage collected in the AEDES forms, has been done. Keywords Masonry buildings · Vulnerability curves · Empirical approach
* Giulio Zuccaro [email protected] Francesca Linda Perelli [email protected] Daniela De Gregorio [email protected] Francesco Cacace [email protected] 1
PLINIVS‑LUPT Study Centre, University of Naples “Federico II”, Via Toledo, 402 Napoli, Italy
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Vol.:(0123456789)
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
1 Introduction The first step to plan any operational measure during and after a seismic emergency is the damage assessment of the exposed elements. In this framework, it is possible to develop risk or scenario analyses. The "seismic risk" is defined as the cumulative assessment of the potential total damage caused by the all possible events that can occur in a considered area in a fixed time period. On the other hand, a "seismic scenario" is the damage probabilistic distribution, in a given geographical area, caused by a sin‑ gle seismic event with a given intensity (chosen as “reference scenario”), with assigned probability of occurrence. Risk is, therefore, the combination of scenarios. In both risk/scenario analyses three aleatory variables have to be considered according to the convolution:
Risk = Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability The “hazard” is the probability to reach seismic input values in a fixed area and in a predetermined time window. The “exposure” is the qualitative and quantitative geographic distribution of the different elements at risk (population, buildings, infrastructures, acti
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