Mechanics-based fragility curves for Italian residential URM buildings
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Mechanics-based fragility curves for Italian residential URM buildings Marco Donà1,2 · Pietro Carpanese2 · Veronica Follador2 · Luca Sbrogiò3 · Francesca da Porto2 Received: 29 January 2020 / Accepted: 6 August 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Seismic risk assessment at the territorial level is now widely recognised as essential for countries with intense seismic activity, such as Italy. Academia is called to give its contribution in order to synergically deepen the knowledge about the various components of this risk, starting from the complex evaluation of vulnerability of the built heritage. In line with this, a mechanics-based seismic fragility model for Italian residential masonry buildings was developed and presented in this paper. This model is based on the classification of the building stock in macro-typologies, defined by age of construction and number of storeys, which being information available at national level, allow simulating damage scenarios and carrying out risk analyses on a territorial scale. The model is developed on the fragility of over 500 buildings, sampled according to national representativeness criteria and analysed through the Vulnus_4.0 software. The calculated fragility functions were extended on the basis of a reference model available in the literature, which provides generic fragilities for the EMS98 vulnerability classes, thus obtaining a fragility model defined on the five EMS98 damage states. Lastly, to assess the reliability of the proposed model, this was used to simulate damage scenarios due to the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. Overall, the comparison between model results and observed damage showed a good fit, proving the model effectiveness. Keywords Residential masonry buildings · Macro-typologies · Territorial-scale seismic vulnerability · Fragility model · Seismic damage scenarios · Seismic risk management
1 Introduction Italy is historically one of the European countries with the highest seismic activity and related number of victims, around 160,000 in the last two centuries (with 85,000 victims in the 1908 Messina earthquake of magnitude Mw 7.1). In the twentieth century, earthquakes with a value of Mw ≥ 6.5 were at least seven and, only in the last 10 years, four events have reached or exceeded a magnitude of 6.0 (Italian Civil Protection Department—DPC 2018). * Marco Donà [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
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Vol.:(0123456789)
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
Over the last 50 years, earthquakes forced the Italian state to sustain emergency management, recovery and reconstruction costs amounting to around 180 billion euros, of which 130 billion for earthquakes from 1968 to 2003 (discounted to 2003) and 45 billion (most likely estimate) for the recent events of L’Aquila 2009, Emilia 2012 and Central Italy 2016 (DPC 2018; further information can be found in Swiss Reinsurance Company 2019). Therefore, without considering casualties, impairment of historical and artistic heritage (difficult to quantify),
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