Empowering strategic decision-making for wildfire management: avoiding the fear trap and creating a resilient landscape
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Castellnou et al. Fire Ecology (2019) 15:31 https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-019-0048-6
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Empowering strategic decision-making for wildfire management: avoiding the fear trap and creating a resilient landscape Marc Castellnou1,2*, Núria Prat-Guitart2, Etel Arilla1, Asier Larrañaga1, Edgar Nebot1, Xavier Castellarnau1, Jordi Vendrell2, Josep Pallàs1, Joan Herrera1, Marc Monturiol1, José Cespedes1, Jordi Pagès1, Claudi Gallardo1 and Marta Miralles1
Abstract In recent years, fire services in Mediterranean Europe have been overwhelmed by extreme wildfire behavior. As a consequence, fire management has moved to defensive strategies with a focus only on the known risks (the fear trap). In this region, wildfires can change rapidly, increasing the uncertainty and causing complex operational scenarios that impact society right from the initial hours. To address this challenge, proactive approaches are an alternative to defensive and reactive strategies. We propose a methodology that integrates the uncertainty of decisions and the cost of each opportunity into the strategic decision-making process. The methodology takes into account values such as fire-fighting safety, organizational resilience, landscape resilience, and social values. Details of the methods and principles used to develop and implement a creative decision-making process that empower the fireline are provided. A tool that segregates the landscape into polygons of fire potential and defines the connectivity between those polygons is used. Two examples of operational implementation of this methodology are presented (2014 Tivissa Fire and 2015 Odena Fire). These methods facilitate the analysis of possible scenarios of resolution and the costs of the opportunities that help build resilient emergency response systems and prevent their collapse. Moreover, they help explain the risk to society and involve citizens in the decision-making process. These methods are based on the experience and lessons learned by European incident commanders, managers, and researchers collected during the last decade. Keywords: fire ecology, forest fires, resilience, risk, strategy, tactics, uncertainty
Resumen En los últimos años, el comportamiento extremo de los incendios forestales en la Europa Mediterránea ha excedido la capacidad de extinción de los servicios de emergencias. En consecuencia, los servicios de emergencias han adoptado estrategias defensivas y han centrado su respuesta en los riesgos conocidos, lo que se conoce como trampa del miedo. En esta región europea, los incendios pueden cambiar rápidamente e impactar desde su inicio en la sociedad, aumentando así la incertidumbre y provocando escenarios operativos complejos. (Continued on next page)
* Correspondence: [email protected] 1 Catalan Fire and Rescue Service, GRAF division, Carretera Unversitat Autonoma s/n, 08290 Cerdanyola del Valles, Spain 2 Pau Costa Foundation, Mossèn Cinto Verdaguer, 42 baixos A, 08552 Taradell, Spain © The Author(s). 2019 Open Access This article is distributed under the te
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