Epidemic model of COVID-19 outbreak by inducing behavioural response in population
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Epidemic model of COVID-19 outbreak by inducing behavioural response in population Sangeeta Saha · G. P. Samanta · Juan J. Nieto
Received: 27 May 2020 / Accepted: 12 August 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract COVID-19 has spread around the world since December 2019, creating one of the greatest pandemics ever witnessed. According to the current reports, this is a situation when people need to be more careful and take the precaution measures more seriously, unless the condition may become even worse. Maintaining social distances and proper hygiene, staying at isolation or adopting the self-quarantine method are some of the common practices that people should use to avoid the infection. And the growing information regarding COVID-19 and its symptoms help the people to take proper precautions. In this present study, we consider an SEIRS epidemiological model on COVID19 transmission which accounts for the effect of an individual’s behavioural response due to the information regarding proper precautions. Our results indicate that if people respond to the growing information regarding awareness at a higher rate and start to take the protective measures, then the infected population decreases significantly. The disease fatality can be controlled only S. Saha · G. P. Samanta (B) Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology, Shibpur, Howrah 711103, India e-mail: [email protected] S. Saha e-mail: [email protected] J. J. Nieto Instituto de Matematicas, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, 15782 Santiago de Compostela, Spain e-mail: [email protected]
if a large proportion of individuals become immune, either by natural immunity or by a proper vaccine. In order to apply the latter option, we need to wait until a safe and proper vaccine is developed and it is a timetaking process. Hence, in the latter part of the work, an optimal control problem is considered by implementing control strategies to reduce the disease burden. Numerical figures show that the control denoting behavioural response works with higher intensity immediately after implementation and then gradually decreases with time. Further, the control policy denoting hospitalisation of infected individuals works with its maximum intensity for quite a long time period following a sudden decrease. As, the implementation of the control strategies reduce the infected population and increase the recovered population, so, it may help to reduce the disease transmission at this current epidemic situation. Keywords COVID-19 · Epidemic model · Behavioural response · Optimal control
1 Introduction The first outbreak caused by a novel betacoronavirus was reported in Wuhan, capital of Hubei Chinese province in December 2019 [8,9,28]. Initially, most of the cases were found around the wholesale Huanan seafood market, Wuhan where live animals are also traded [24]. But within one and a half month
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COVID-19 spread to all Chinese province and to the rest of the world. World Hea
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