Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and c
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios Chen Xu1,*, Yinqiao Dong2,*, Xiaoyue Yu1,*, Huwen Wang1,*, Lhakpa Tsamlag1,*, Shuxian Zhang1,*, Ruijie Chang1,*,
Zezhou Wang3,*, Yuelin Yu1,*, Rusi Long1,*, Ying Wang1, Gang Xu1, Tian Shen1, Suping Wang1, Xinxin Zhang (✉)4, Hui Wang (✉)1, Yong Cai (✉)1
1 School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China; 2Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang 110122, China; 3Department of Cancer Prevention, Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200025, China; 4Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Ruijin Hospital and Ruijin Hospital North Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
© Higher Education Press 2020
Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a life-threatening pandemic. The epidemic trends in different countries vary considerably due to different policy-making and resources mobilization. We calculated basic reproduction number (R0) and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproductive number (Rt) of COVID-19 by using the maximum likelihood method and the sequential Bayesian method, respectively. European and North American countries possessed higher R0 and unsteady Rt fluctuations, whereas some heavily affected Asian countries showed relatively low R0 and declining Rt now. The numbers of patients in Africa and Latin America are still low, but the potential risk of huge outbreaks cannot be ignored. Three scenarios were then simulated, generating distinct outcomes by using SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and removed) model. First, evidence-based prompt responses yield lower transmission rate followed by decreasing Rt. Second, implementation of effective control policies at a relatively late stage, in spite of huge casualties at early phase, can still achieve containment and mitigation. Third, wisely taking advantage of the time-window for developing countries in Africa and Latin America to adopt adequate measures can save more people’s life. Our mathematical modeling provides evidence for international communities to develop sound design of containment and mitigation policies for COVID-19. Keywords
reproduction number; SEIR model; COVID-19; estimate
Introduction The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected more than two hundred countries, areas or territories worldwide [1]. World Health Organization (WHO) announced COVID-19 is a pandemic [2]. As of March 28, 2020, 570 947 confirmed cases of the COVID-
Received April 1, 2020; accepted April 5, 2020 Correspondence: Yong Cai, [email protected]; Hui Wang, [email protected]; Xinxin Zhang, [email protected] *
These authors contributed equally to
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