Factors Affecting the Behavior of Large Forest Fires in Turkey
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Factors Affecting the Behavior of Large Forest Fires in Turkey İsmet Daşdemir
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Fuat Aydın2 Mertol Ertuğrul1 ●
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Received: 25 April 2020 / Accepted: 28 October 2020 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Fire behavior should be estimated accurately and multidimensionally to reduce the dangers and harmful effects of forest fires and to develop effective fire management strategies. Therefore, in this study, the most important factors affecting fire behavior were determined by statistical methods using data of 59 large forest fires that occurred between 1977 and 2017 in Turkey. Some data were obtained from the General Directorate of Forestry, and the remaining were obtained from meteorological stations and Google Maps. The large forest fires were investigated with descriptive statistics. Correlation, regression with generalized models, and factor analyses were performed. It was discovered that the rate of spread is particularly related to the wind direction, wind speed, and stand canopy. The most important factors affecting the behavior of large forest fires were determined as (1) stand age, (2) stand canopy, (3) wind direction, (4) wind speed, (5) altitude, and (6) aspect, and 76% of fire behavior is linked to these factors. Moreover, a forest fire behavior index (FFBI) was developed for large forest fires. They were categorized into three classes using the FFBI, and the characteristics of each class were identified. Finally, the findings were discussed, and suggestions for fire management were presented. Keywords Fire behavior Fire management Large forest fire Multidimensional analysis Turkey ●
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Introduction Forest fires have ecological, biological, technical, economic, administrative, and social dimensions. Forest fires are natural events of a forest ecosystem and they may have both positive and negative effects on it. They can renew vegetation, regenerate forests, eliminate diseases and harmful threats, and reduce the amount of flammable materials. On the other hand, they may have destructive effects, and cause economic, social, and environmental losses. Therefore, forest fires, which are a subcomponent of forest resource management, should be considered together with their ecological, economic, environmental, social, and other dimensions when preparing fire management strategies and plans.
* İsmet Daşdemir [email protected] 1
Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Bartın University, Bartın, Turkey
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Department of Fighting Forest Fires (Retired), General Directorate of Forestry, Ankara, Turkey
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The characteristics of fire caused by environmental factors are called fire behavior (Bilgili et al. 2002). This concept is used to describe the path and development of fires that follow. Indeed, fire behavior can be used to estimate the characteristics and danger potential of an existing fire in a given time and space (Hawkes et al. 1997). Fire behavior describes the movement (rate of area increase), intensity (flame length), and indica
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