Influence of air temperature and precipitation on the risk of forest fires in Serbia
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Influence of air temperature and precipitation on the risk of forest fires in Serbia Stanimir Živanović1 · Radomir Ivanović2 · Milena Nikolić3 · Mrđan Đokić3 · Ivana Tošić4 Received: 6 August 2019 / Accepted: 4 January 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Official reports indicate that the number of forest fires and areas affected by fire in Serbia is increasing. Changes in temperature and precipitation, important factors in fire behaviour, were determined by comparison between the standard climatological period (1961–1990) and the period 1981–2010. The study processed and compared the data from 26 meteorological stations on the territory of Serbia. In order to determine the risk of fires, values of the Lang precipitation factor and Ångström index are calculated. It is found that the mean values of temperature significantly increased during the second period at all stations in Serbia. The small values of the precipitation factor are recorded during summer, but also in the spring months. Research has shown that an increase in air temperature and reduction of precipitation in the examined period has a great influence of the possibility of fire occurrence. It is concluded that there is a higher fire danger risk during the summer months in Serbia. It is found that eastern and southern Serbia are particularly vulnerable to forest fires because of small values of the Lang precipitation factors.
1 Introduction
Responsible Editor: A.-P. Dimri. * Ivana Tošić [email protected] Stanimir Živanović [email protected] Radomir Ivanović [email protected] Milena Nikolić [email protected] Mrđan Đokić [email protected] 1
Emergency Management Sector of Serbia, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
2
Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences, University of Priština With Temporary Head Office in Kosovska Mitrovica, 38220 Kosovska Mitrovica, Serbia
3
Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences, University of Niš, 18110 Niš, Serbia
4
Institute for Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Forecasting the fire risk is the basis for taking necessary measures against forest fires. Fire hazards are considered to be one of the most dangerous hazards in the world (Wang et al. 2018). Some studies (Živanović 2010) indicate that, in addition to vegetative cover, terrain characteristics and values of climate elements also contribute to an increased risk of forest fire. The possibility of vegetative cover catching fire depends on the level of moisture present in combustible materials, soil and air, which is more or less affected by the values and changes of climate elements. Experts from the Canadian Forest Service in Ontario have concluded in their study on the relationship between meteorological parameters and the occurrence of forest fires, “The weather can cause a forest fire, and when it does, the weather controls its behaviour” (Wagner 1987). Weather variables are often combined in specific meteorological fire danger indices that provide estimation
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