Factors driving the change of household CO 2 emissions through 2040 in China: based on decomposition and scenario analys
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Factors driving the change of household CO2 emissions through 2040 in China: based on decomposition and scenario analyses Litong Zhao 1 & Tao Zhao 1 & Rong Yuan 2 Received: 13 March 2020 / Accepted: 11 June 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract With China’s economic transformation into a consumption-driven model, household CO2 emissions (HCEs) become an increasingly essential part of China’s CO2 emissions. However, how will the HCEs change in urban and rural areas and what are the driving forces of HCEs through 2040 are not clear. In this paper, we project nation-level HCEs up to 2040 by the scenario analysis, and analyze the drivers of HCEs during 1997–2040 by the decomposition analysis. We find that the HCEs kept a persistent growth during 1997–2017 as energy intensity reduction and energy structure optimization cannot offset the rapid growth of consumption and population. During 2017–2040, in the current policy scenario, the rural HCEs will decrease, while the peaking of the total HCEs and urban HCEs would not be achieved. In the sustainable development scenario, the total HCEs, urban HCEs and rural HCEs will peak before 2030 and afterward decrease, because the energy intensity will induce a 51% and 76% reduction in the total HCEs and urban HCEs, respectively. Moreover, the decrease in the share of coal consumption due to the development of non-fossil fuels and natural gas will cause a more than 25% reduction in HCEs in the sustainable development scenario. Keywords Household CO2 emissions . Urban-rural disparities . Scenarios . Decomposition analysis . Monte Carlo
Introduction As the world second largest economic body (NBSC 19982018b; Ahmad and Zhao, 2018), China’s total GDP increased rapidly during 1978–2017 with an average annual rate of 9.5% (NBSC 1998-2018b), which stimulates the increase of CO2 emissions. In 2017, China’s CO2 emissions reached 9.26 billion tons, accounting for 28.19% of global emissions and nearly 1.71 times of that in 2005 (OECD, 2019a). China is the largest CO2 emitter in the world (IEA 2009; Zhao et al., 2019; Zheng et al., 2020) and facing serious pressure to coordinate economic growth and CO2 emissions (Wu et al., 2019b; Li et al., 2019). To reduce CO2 emissions, China outlined its first
Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues * Rong Yuan [email protected] 1
School of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, 300072 Tianjin, People’s Republic of China
2
School of Business Management and Economics, Chongqing University, 400045 Chongqing, People’s Republic of China
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in 2015, promising that CO2 emissions will peak by 2030 (UNFCCC 2019). Driven by the economic transformation toward a consumption-driven model (Mi et al., 2017; Wu et al., 2019a), during 1997–2017, household CO 2 emissions (HCEs) increased from 335 MtCO2 to 1013 MtCO2 with an average annual growth rate of 5.7% (NBSC 1998-2018a), accounting for 12.03% of national total CO2 emissions in 2017. Due to the importan
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