Forecasting of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India using SIR model, flatten curve and herd immunity
- PDF / 2,080,827 Bytes
- 9 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 40 Downloads / 211 Views
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Forecasting of the SARS‑CoV‑2 epidemic in India using SIR model, flatten curve and herd immunity Maheshwari Venkatasen1 · Sandeep Kumar Mathivanan1 · Prabhu Jayagopal1 · Prasanna Mani1 · Sukumar Rajendran1 · UmaShankar Subramaniam2 · Aroul Canessane Ramalingam3 · Vijay Anand Rajasekaran1 · Alagiri Indirajithu1 · Manivannan Sorakaya Somanathan1 Received: 17 July 2020 / Accepted: 24 October 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract In this paper, we are presenting an epidemiological model for exploring the transmission of outbreaks caused by viral infections. Mathematics and statistics are still at the cutting edge of technology where scientific experts, health facilities, and government deal with infection and disease transmission issues. The model has implicitly applied to COVID-19, a transmittable disease by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The SIR model (Susceptible-Infection-Recovered) used as a context for examining the nature of the pandemic. Though, some of the mathematical model assumptions have been improved evaluation of the contamination-free from excessive predictions. The objective of this study is to provide a simple but effective explanatory model for the prediction of the future development of infection and for checking the effectiveness of containment and lockdown. We proposed a SIR model with a flattening curve and herd immunity based on a susceptible population that grows over time and difference in mortality and birth rates. It illustrates how a disease behaves over time, taking variables such as the number of sensitive individuals in the community and the number of those who are immune. It accurately model the disease and their lessons on the importance of immunization and herd immunity. The outcomes obtained from the simulation of the COVID-19 outbreak in India make it possible to formulate projections and forecasts for the future epidemic progress circumstance in India. Keywords SIR model · Flatten-curve · Herd immunity · COVID-19 · Outbreaks
1 Introduction COVID-19 is a new pathogenic infection disease evolving rapidly. As per the report on April 26, 2020, more than 2.92 million cases have been recorded in 210 countries and
territories, 203,000 deaths, and around 829,000 people have recovered globally. Millions of people are forced to remain self-isolated and under challenging conditions by national governments. The disease is proliferating in many countries all around the world. In the absence of proper
* Maheshwari Venkatasen [email protected]
Vijay Anand Rajasekaran [email protected]
Sandeep Kumar Mathivanan [email protected]
Alagiri Indirajithu [email protected]
Prabhu Jayagopal [email protected]
Manivannan Sorakaya Somanathan [email protected]
Prasanna Mani [email protected]
1
Sukumar Rajendran [email protected]
School of Information Technology and Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, TamilNadu, India
2
Renewable Energy Lab, Department of Communication and Netw
Data Loading...
