Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Growth Curve in India
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Modeling and Forecasting of COVID‑19 Growth Curve in India Vikas Kumar Sharma1 · Unnati Nigam1 Received: 11 June 2020 / Accepted: 24 August 2020 © Indian National Academy of Engineering 2020
Abstract In this article, we analyze the growth pattern of COVID-19 pandemic in India from March 4 to July 11 using regression analysis (exponential and polynomial), auto-regressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) model as well as exponential smoothing and Holt–Winters models. We found that the growth of COVID-19 cases follows a power regime of (t2 , t, ...) after the exponential growth. We found the optimal change points from where the COVID-19 cases shifted their course of growth from exponential to quadratic and then from quadratic to linear. After that, we saw a sudden spike in the course of the spread of COVID-19 and the growth moved from linear to quadratic and then to quartic, which is alarming. We have also found the best fitted regression models using the various criteria, such as significant p-values, coefficients of determination and ANOVA, etc. Further, we search the best-fitting ARIMA model for the data using the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) and provide the forecast of COVID-19 cases for future days. We also use usual exponential smoothing and Holt–Winters models for forecasting purpose. We further found that the ARIMA (5, 2, 5) model is the best-fitting model for COVID-19 cases in India. Keywords COVID-19 · Regression analysis · Exponential growth · Polynomial growth · ANOVA · ARIMA · Exponential smoothing and holt–winters models · Prediction · Forecast
Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has created a lot of havoc in the world. It is caused by a virus called SARS-CoV-2, which comes from the family of coronaviruses and is believed to be originated from the unhygienic wet seafood market in Wuhan, China but it has now infected around 215 countries of the world. With more than 13.2 million people affected around the world and more than 575,000 deaths (As of July 14, 2020), it has forced people to stay in their homes and has caused huge devastation in the world economy (Singh and Singh 2020; Ministry of Health and Family Welfare 2020; Gupta et al. 2019). In India, the first case of COVID-19 was reported on 30th January, which was linked to the Wuhan city of China (as the patient has travel history to the city). On 4th March, India saw a sudden hike in the number of cases and since then, the numbers are increasing day by day. As of 14th July, India * Vikas Kumar Sharma [email protected] 1
Department of Statistics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
has more than 908,000 cases with more than 23,000 deaths and is world’s 3rd most infected country (https: //www.world ometers.info/coronavirus/). Since the outbreak of the pandemic, scientists across the world have been indulged in the studies regarding the spread of the virus. Lin et al. (2020) suggested the use of the SEIR (Susceptible– Exposed–Infectious–Removed) model for the spread in China an
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