Global warming likely reduces crop yield and water availability of the dryland cropping systems in the U.S. Central Grea
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J. Crop Sci. Biotech. 2013 (December) 16 (4) : 233 ~ 242 DOI No. 10.1007/s12892-013-0106-6 RESEARCH ARTICLE
Global Warming Likely Reduces Crop Yield and Water Availability of the Dryland Cropping Systems in the U.S. Central Great Plains Jonghan Ko1, 2, *, Lajpat R. Ahuja1 USDA-ARS Agricultural Systems Research Unit, 2150 Centre Ave., Bldg D, Suite 200,Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA Chonnam National University, Department of Applied Plant Science, 77 Yongbong-ro, Buk-gu, Gwangju 500-757, Republic of Korea 1 2
Received: September 01, 2013 / Accepted: December 17, 2013 Ⓒ Korean Society of Crop Science and Springer 2013
Abstract We investigated the impact of GCM-projected climate change on dryland crop rotations of wheat-fallow and wheat-cornfallow in the Central Great Plains (Akron in Colorado, USA) using the CERES 4.0 crop modules in RZWQM2. The climate change scenarios for CO2, temperature, and precipitation were produced by 22 GCM projections for Colorado based on the A1B scenario. The climate change for years 2050 and 2075 was super-imposed on measured 30-year-baseline climate data (1989-2008). For all the cropping rotations and projection years, simulated yields of wheat and corn decreased significantly (P < 0.05) with increasing temperatures. The yield declines due to the elevated temperatures should be attributable to the shortening of crop maturity duration and concurrent decreases in soil water and evapotranspiration. The model was also projected to decrease crop yields for the combined climate change scenarios of CO2, temperature, and precipitation in the dryland cropping rotations. Key words: climate change, crop modeling, cropping rotation, simulation, water-use efficiency, yield
Introduction An increase in global mean surface temperatures by 0.74°C ± 0.18°C over the last 100 years (1906-2005) resulted from the build-up of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere (IPCC 2007). The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) predicts a warming of ~ 0.2°C per decade over the next two decades. The probable doubling of the current atmospheric CO2 concentration due to the emissions and associated warming will likely impact on agricultural production due to changes in evapotranspiration, plant growth rates, plant litter composition, and nitrogen-carbon cycle (Long et al. 2006). The effect at any location of the world will depend on the magnitude of change and response Jonghan Ko ( ) E-mail: [email protected] Tel: +82-62-530-2053 / Fax: +82-62-530-2059 The Korean Society of Crop Science
of the crops, forage or livestock species, and location-specific management. Soil-water-crop management practices that increase water-use efficiency and crop yield as well as add higher carbon residue to soil can potentially increase soil carbon and N storage to counteract the GHG build-up in the atmosphere (Smith et al. 2007). It is necessary to study the impacts of a projected increase in GHG and subsequent global climate change especially on the water-limited cropping systems to understand the influen
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