Hu Bo, (Trans. Zhang Yanpei; Ed. Geoffrey Till) Chinese Maritime Power in the 21st Century; Strategic Planning, Policy a
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Hu Bo, (Trans. Zhang Yanpei; Ed. Geoffrey Till) Chinese Maritime Power in the 21st Century; Strategic Planning, Policy and Predictions (Routledge: London and New York, 2019) 274 p. $124.00 hardcover; $46.36 e-book Tristan Kenderdine 1 Accepted: 3 September 2020/ # Journal of Chinese Political Science/Association of Chinese Political Studies 2020
This is a translation of China’s Maritime Power in 2049 originally published in 2016 by the Development Research Centre of the State Council. Hu covers the principles, policies and theatres of China’s current and future projected maritime power. The ‘First and Second Island Chain’ strategic policy is ever-present, while ‘stepping out’ to the ‘Two-ocean strategy’ remains the guiding macropolicy, with Hu advising a Pacific carrier group to operate beyond the First Island Chain, and a second carrier group to operate around the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. Near seas policies remain centred on the equation of: ‘stabilise the north’ (Yellow Sea), ‘harmonise the south’ (South China Sea), and ‘contest the east’ (East China Sea). Less well-studied policies include development of satellite communications priorities in the South America cone and Namibia upon which to open power projection capacity in the South Atlantic; the ‘Changjitu’ Changchun to Tumen logistics and supply corridor which could open a permanent presence in the Sea of Japan; and the presumption of future permanent supply and communications bases in various South Pacific island states. Hu explains well China’s maritime problems with the Korean peninsula and the South China Sea, and examines China’s power frictions with regional maritime powers in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The most detailed and technical chapter is on the East China Sea as the principal ground for contest and engagement in response to the US AirSea Battle system paradigm. Hu notes that A2/AD is not explicit China maritime policy but a China appropriation of a US interpretation. These chapters on the near seas and two-oceans demonstrate well the multi-layered approach of China to maritime power—a series of overlapping policies in both depth and breadth encompassing passive and active power, operational power, international law, and differentiated regional policies.
* Tristan Kenderdine [email protected]
1
Future Risk, Almaty, Kazakhstan
T. Kenderdine
However while the technical, policy and strategic focus of the book is good, the overriding intellectual premise is questionable. Hu contends that China should become the world’s second maritime power. Rather than positioning China as a secondary challenger to United States maritime hegemony, a more interesting study might have been to examine China’s prospects of becoming second against both past and present second-placed maritime powers, especially considering the historic challenges faced by an aspirational secondary maritime power. France administers the world’s largest EEZ jurisdiction and is arguably the world’s second maritime power with a significant navy by displacement, t
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