Hydro-Meteorological Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Phailin in Bay of Bengal in 2013 and the Assessment of Rice Inundation
Tropical Cyclones (TCs), one of the most destructive of all the natural disasters, are capable of causing loss of life and extensive damage to property. The Bay of Bengal is a potentially energetic region for the development of cyclonic storms and approxi
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1 Introduction Tropical Cyclones (TCs), one of the most destructive of all the natural disasters, are capable of causing loss of life and extensive damage to property. The Bay of Bengal is a potentially energetic region for the development of cyclonic storms and approximately 7 % of the global annual tropical storms form over this region with two cyclone seasons in a year (Gray 1968). Much of the TC related damage is attributed to storm surges, high winds, damage associated with strong thunderstorm complexes and TC-induced heavy rainfall. Predicting rainfall associated with TCs is a major operational challenge. Over the last few decades flooding from TCs at landfall has become a threat to human lives in India. Although track-forecasts continue to improve, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) for TCs have shown little skill. One of the uncertainties in QPF is a lack of precipitation data over the open oceans to evaluate and validate numerical weather prediction (NWP) model results. TC rainfall forecasting techniques are lagging behind those of the track forecast. However, significant progress has been made in recent years due to the advance in remote sensing observations and the improvement of mesoscale models and data assimilation techniques. Until relatively recently, TC rainfall prediction was carried out mainly using empirical methods and subjective experience on the part of the forecaster. However, advanced techniques for Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) are currently employed in operational applications in some major forecasting centres, which already have greatly improved the
K. Rays (*) • M. Mohapatra • K. Chakravarthy • A.K. Das • B.A.M. Kannan B.K. Bandyopadhyay India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, 110003 New Delhi, India e-mail: [email protected] S.S. Ray • S.K. Singh Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast Centre, Pusa Campus, 110012 New Delhi, India © Capital Publishing Company 2017 M. Mohapatra et al. (eds.), Tropical Cyclone Activity over the North Indian Ocean, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-40576-6_2
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forecasting for TC-related rainfall. Minakshi Devi et al. (2014) have shown predicted tracks of a few cyclonic events such as SIDR (Nov, 2007), Aila (May, 2009) and Laila (May, 2010) along with their contribution to precipitation in the NE India. Recent studies have indicated that some high resolution dynamical model simulations are capable of capturing the rainfall pattern of TCs. Lee and Choi (2010) investigated the torrential rainfall associated with Typhoon Rusa in South Korea in 2002 through numerical simulation using Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Haggag and Yamashita (2009) studied the hydro-meteorological features of TC Gonu using coupled atmosphere, ocean and land surface modelling with an atmospheric component based on the MM5 model. There are other studies on performance of models including, Raju et al. (2012), Osuri et al. (2012), Abhilash et al. (2012), Routray et al. (2013) and Srivastava et al. (2011). All these studies i
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