Identification of risk factors for involuntary psychiatric hospitalization: using environmental socioeconomic data and m
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Identification of risk factors for involuntary psychiatric hospitalization: using environmental socioeconomic data and methods of machine learning to improve prediction O. Karasch1, M. Schmitz-Buhl2, R. Mennicken3, J. Zielasek1 and E. Gouzoulis-Mayfrank1,2*
Abstract Background: The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with a high risk of involuntary psychiatric in-patient hospitalization both on the individual level and on the level of mental health services and the socioeconomic environment that patients live in. Methods: The present study expands on a previous analysis of the health records of 5764 cases admitted as inpatients in the four psychiatric hospitals of the Metropolitan City of Cologne, Germany, in the year 2011 (1773 cases treated under the Mental Health Act and 3991 cases treated voluntarily). Our previous analysis had included medical, sociodemographic and socioeconomic data of every case and used a machine learning-based prediction model employing chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID). Our current analysis attempts to improve the previous one through (1) optimizing the machine learning procedures (use of a different type of decision-tree prediction model (Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and application of hyperparameter tuning (HT)), and (2) the addition of patients’ environmental socioeconomic data (ESED) to the data set. Results: Compared to our previous analysis, model fit was improved. Main diagnoses of an organic mental or a psychotic disorder (ICD-10 groups F0 and F2), suicidal behavior upon admission, admission outside of regular service hours and absence of outpatient treatment prior to admission were confirmed as powerful predictors of detention. Particularly high risks were shown for (1) patients with an organic mental disorder, specifically if they were retired, admitted outside of regular service hours and lived in assisted housing, (2) patients with suicidal tendencies upon admission who did not suffer from an affective disorder, specifically if it was unclear whether there had been previous suicide attempts, or if the affected person lived in areas with high unemployment rates, and (3) patients with psychosis, specifically those who lived in densely built areas with a large proportion of small or one-person households. (Continued on next page)
* Correspondence: [email protected] 1 LVR-Institute for Healthcare Research, Wilhelm-Griesinger-Strasse 23, 51109 Cologne (Köln), Germany 2 LVR Clinics Cologne, Cologne, Germany Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third pa
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