Distribution of the environmental and socioeconomic risk factors on COVID-19 death rate across continental USA: a spatia
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Distribution of the environmental and socioeconomic risk factors on COVID-19 death rate across continental USA: a spatial nonlinear analysis Yaowen Luo 1,2
&
Jianguo Yan 2 & Stephen McClure 2
Received: 31 July 2020 / Accepted: 21 September 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak has become a global pandemic. The spatial variation in the environmental, health, socioeconomic, and demographic risk factors of COVID-19 death rate is not well understood. Global models and local linear models were used to estimate the impact of risk factors of the COVID-19, but these do not account for the nonlinear relationships between the risk factors and the COVID-19 death rate at various geographical locations. We proposed a local nonlinear nonparametric regression model named geographically weighted random forest (GW-RF) to estimate the nonlinear relationship between COVID-19 death rate and 47 risk factors derived from the US Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Information, Centers for Disease Control and the US census. The COVID-19 data were employed to a global regression model random forest (RF) and a local model GW-RF. The adjusted R2 of the RF is 0.69. The adjusted R2 of the proposed GW-RF is 0.78. The result of GW-RF showed that the risk factors (i.e. going to work by walking, airborne benzene concentration, householder with a mortgage, unemployment, airborne PM2.5 concentration and per cent of the black or African American) have a high correlation with the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 death rate, and these key factors driven from the GW-RF were mapped, which could provide useful implications for controlling the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Keywords COVID-19 death rate . Environment . Socioeconomic . Health . Local nonlinear model . Spatial variation
Instruction The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 is a rapidly spreading infectious disease that mainly affects the respiratory system (Landi 2020). Because the disease is highly contagious with rapid transmission between humans (Huang et al. 2020), the World Health Origination (WHO) declared on March 11, 2020 that the COVID-19 outbreak is a global pandemic (World Health Responsible editor: Lotfi Aleya * Yaowen Luo [email protected] * Jianguo Yan [email protected] 1
Electronic Information School, Wuhan University, 127 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
Organization 2020). As of July 6, 2020, a total of 11,520,953 COVID-19 confirmed cases and 532,633 deaths have been recorded worldwide. The current epicentre of the COVID-19 is the USA with 2,982,928 confirmed cases and 132,569 deaths as of July 6, 2020. The economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis is unprecedented in USA with a substantial stock market shifting and unemployment rate reaching the peak (O’Connor et al. 2020). The health care system is also ov
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