Impact of climate change on the stream-flow of Ala River, Akure, Nigeria
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(2021) 7:1
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Impact of climate change on the stream‑flow of Ala River, Akure, Nigeria A. M. Akinwumi1 · J. R. Adewumi1 · O. A. Obiora‑Okeke1 Received: 19 March 2020 / Accepted: 5 November 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Climate change is one of the notable changes experienced around the world today and this is as a result of Global warming. The environmental impact of climate change, especially in densely populated developing countries such as Nigeria cannot be overlooked without seeking to provide useful information to help avert the consequences arising from it. Therefore, the aim of this research is to simulate the effect of climate change on the stream-flow of Ala River, Akure, Nigeria and this aim is achieved by projecting future rainfall due to climate change and simulating a hydrologic model of the river. Precipitation change experienced in the world climate system was considered and projection of precipitation for Ala, Akure was done by statistically downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.0) climate scenario. The projected climate change alongside other hydrologic parameters was input into Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) version 4.2 to simulate a hydrologic model so as to achieve the peak discharges at a different cross-section of the river reach. The peak discharges obtained for the Ala River basin indicate a continuous increase of the runoff generated as a result of an increase in precipitation as the years progresses resulting from a change in the climate system. Keywords Climate change · River flow · Stream flow · HEC-HMS · General circulation model · Ala River
Introduction Climate change has been defined as a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and /or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period typically decades or longer (IPCC 2007). Climate change arising from Global warming; a term used to describe the gradual increase in the average temperature of the earth’s atmosphere and its oceans, a change that is permanently changing earth’s climate forever. In fact, global warming has already begun, as there is a scientific consensus that the average earth’s temperature has risen between 0.4 and 0.8 °C in the last 100 years. Nigeria is one of the world’s most densely populated countries with a population of about 180 million people, half of which are considered to be in abject poverty;
* J. R. Adewumi [email protected] 1
Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Technology, P.M.B. 704, Akure, Nigeria
therefore, Nigeria is recognized as being vulnerable to climate change (Osinowo et al. 2015). The flood occurrence of Ala River has been discovered as being disastrous as the river flow cuts across some part of the semi-urban and urban areas of Akure city (Ibitoye et al. 2019; Olalekan and Fadesola 2017). This can be attributed to a re
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