Impact of cropland displacement on the potential crop production in China: a multi-scale analysis
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Impact of cropland displacement on the potential crop production in China: a multi-scale analysis Bohan Yang 1,2 & Xinli Ke 3 & Jasper van Vliet 2 & Qiangyi Yu 4 & Ting Zhou 3,5 & Peter H. Verburg 2,6 Received: 18 March 2020 / Accepted: 15 July 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Changes in the amount and location of cropland areas may affect the potential crop production at different spatial scales. However, most studies ignore the impacts of cropland displacement on potential crop production. In many countries, cropland protection policies mainly aim for no loss in cropland area, while there is no restriction on change of cropland location. Taking China as the study area, we analyze the impacts of cropland displacement on potential crop production at four administrative levels during the period 2000 and 2018. At the national level, we find a net decrease in cropland area of 0.81 Mha, while another 19.63 Mha was displaced. The former led to a decrease of 4.20 Mton in potential crop production, while the latter resulted in a decrease of 43.26 Mton as a result of lower quality of the newly cultivated lands. In other words, cropland displacement explains 91% of the total loss in potential crop production at the national scale. However, the contribution of cropland displacement to total change in potential crop production is increasingly smaller at provincial level, municipal level, and county levels. These findings highlight the importance of geographic location on crop production and suggest that cropland policies should consider geographic location in addition to cropland area. Keywords Land use change . Cropland displacement . Potential crop production . Land use policy . Food security
Introduction Changes in potential crop production are often primarily attributed to changes in cropland area, in different regions across the world (e.g., Godfray et al. 2012; Griffiths et al. 2013). These losses occur among others due to land
degradation (Liu and Diamond 2005; Wang et al. 2007), land abandonment (Ramankutty et al. 2009; Zumkehr and Campbell 2013), policy changes (Gibson et al. 2015; Zhang et al. 2012), and urban expansion (d’Amour et al. 2017; Pandey and Seto 2015; van Vliet et al. 2017). To ensure sufficient food supply, policies have been implemented in
Communicated by Wolfgang Cramer * Xinli Ke [email protected]
1
College of Public Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, People’s Republic of China
2
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
3
College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430079, People’s Republic of China
4
Key Laboratory of Agricultural Remote Sensing (AGRIRS), Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
5
Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105,
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