Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York
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Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York Reza Marsooli 1
& Ning Lin
2
Received: 6 September 2019 / Accepted: 5 November 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020, corrected publication 2020
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclone (TC) climatology change could impact future flood hazards in Jamaica Bay—an urbanized back-barrier bay in New York—yet their compound impacts are not well understood. This study estimates the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change on flood hazards in Jamaica Bay from a historical period in the late twentieth century (1980–2000) to future periods in the mid- and latetwenty-first century (2030–2050 and 2080–2100, under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario). Flood return periods are estimated based on probabilistic projections of SLR and peak storm tides simulated by a hydrodynamic model for large numbers of synthetic TCs. We find a substantial increase in the future flood hazards, e.g., the historical 100-year flood level would become a 9- and 1-year flood level in the midand late-twenty-first century and the 500-year flood level would become a 143- and 4year flood level. These increases are mainly induced by SLR. However, TC climatology change would considerably contribute to the future increase in low-probability, highconsequence flood levels (with a return period greater than 100 year), likely due to an increase in the probability of occurrence of slow-moving but intense TCs by the end of twenty-first century. We further conduct high-resolution coastal flood simulations for a series of SLR and TC scenarios. Due to the SLR projected with a 5% exceedance probability, 125- and 1300-year flood events in the late-twentieth century would become 74- and 515-year flood events, respectively, in the late-twenty-first century, and the spatial extent of flooding over coastal floodplains of Jamaica Bay would increase by nearly 10 and 4 times, respectively. In addition, SLR leads to larger surface waves induced by TCs in the bay, suggesting a potential increase in hazards associated with wave runup, erosion, and damage to coastal infrastructure. Keywords Flood hazards . Hurricane . Climate change . Sea level rise . Jamaica Bay . New York
* Reza Marsooli [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Coastal areas surrounding Jamaica Bay, which are home to hundreds of thousands of New York residences, are highly susceptible to coastal flooding. Storm surges induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) result in devastating flood events in this region, as best exemplified by historical TCs such as Hurricane Donna in 1960 and Sandy in 2012 and ETCs such as the Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 and the December 1992 event (Catalano and Broccoli 2018; Catalano et al. 2019). Climate change is expected to impact flood hazards, yet the compound impacts of sea level rise (SLR) and storm climatology change on flood hazards in Jamaica Bay are not fu
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