Information Technology: A Play of Materials
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Information Technology: A Play of Materials Praveen Chaudhari I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. —Thomas Watson, Chair of IBM, 1943 640K ought to be enough for anybody. —Bill Gates, 1981
It is difficult, if not impossible, to visualize what the world will look like in the decades ahead. If current developments are any guide, changes brought about by information technology are likely to be deep, pervasive, and rapid. They will span the world. Every activity associated with humans can be expected to be increasingly affected by the almost instant availability of a worldwide pool of information coupled with our ability to extract and, if need be, process this information for a very wide variety of uses. Those parts of the world that do not adopt and adapt to these rapidly evolving, some say revolutionary, changes will surely be marginalized. Technologies associated with the communication, processing, and storing of information in primarily binary form are collectively called information technology (IT). Also included in IT are human/ machine interface technologies. This article is concerned only with the physical aspects of IT, namely, hardware used to process, store, transmit, and present information. In such a rapidly moving field, “incremental” changes associated with known technologies will cause radical changes in the next 15 years. Such developments in areas of communication technologies, human/machine interaction, storage technologies, and memory/microprocessor/ ASIC/systems-on-a-chip, are covered in this article, describing the current status, nearterm projections, and future scenarios. But this article also veers off of the various roadmaps, projecting developments far into this new century and stretching our imaginations to intriguing possibilities such as using DNA and DNA-like molecules in information technology. It is useful to consider the monetary aspects of IT hardware, so as to view its financial import in some perspective. In the near future, a personal communication system (PCS), which is the evolving cell phone, is likely to cost on the order of $100, and a home computer with a large display that can also serve as an entertainment center, MRS BULLETIN/JULY 2000
about $900. Assuming that these are the only two devices an average family owns and, assuming further, that only a fraction of the world’s population owns them, say a billion people, the annual turnover is about a trillion dollars. If we add to this the IT hardware needs of institutions and the economics associated with software, systems, and applications, it is easy to see that the IT industry is likely to be a muti-trillion-dollar business and a dominant force shaping trade between nations. Unlike natural resources that are determined by location, such as oil, IT is in principle not bound to particular areas of the globe. It requires know-how and determination, which are widely available. However, the infrastructure and financial resources needed—which can be very large—are often lacking. Despite these limitations,
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