Insurgency Prewar Preparation and Intrastate Conflict Latin America
‘Whereas existing studies of insurgency and internal conflict investigate the wartime determinants of success and failure, this book shifts the focus to the period of prewar preparation. Calling this phase incubation, Joel Blaxland shows that insurgents w
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Insurgency Prewar Preparation and Intrastate Conflict
Joel J. Blaxland
Insurgency Prewar Preparation and Intrastate Conflict Latin America and Beyond
Joel J. Blaxland Political Science Western New Mexico University Silver City, NM, USA
ISBN 978-3-030-38184-4 ISBN 978-3-030-38185-1 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38185-1 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
This book is dedicated to the three most important women in my life.
Acknowledgements
I would like to acknowledge the enduring patience and support of my colleagues, friends, and family during this volume’s construction.
vii
About the Book
The author of this volume is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Western New Mexico University. The lion’s share of his research has focused on conflict processes in the Global South.
ix
Contents
1
1
Introduction
2
Coding and Testing Incubation
17
3
The Theory of Incubation
31
4
The Shining Path
67
5
A Comparative Analysis of the MIR and the FMLN
103
6
The Youth
143
7
Conclusions
169
Appendix
177
Index
183
xi
List of Figures
Fig. 2.1 Fig. Fig. Fig. Fig. Fig.
2.2 A.1 A.2 A.3 A.4
Relationship between incubation duration and conflict duration (Source Author’s creation) Exit as a function of incubation (Source Author’s creation) Terrain at various percentiles State capacity State capacity and terrain GDP
20 25 179 180 181 182
xiii
List of Tables
Table 1.1 Table 2.1 Table A.1
Conflict duration measures: M23 v. al-Shabaab Probability of exit Outcome
9 26 178
xv
CHAPTER 1
Intr
Data Loading...
