Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska
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Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska Nathan P. Kettle 1,2 & John E. Walsh 1,2 & Lindsey Heaney 1,2 & Richard L. Thoman Jr 1,2 & Kyle Redilla 1 & Lynneva Carroll 3 Received: 13 April 2020 / Accepted: 19 October 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract
Understanding potential risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts to weather extremes and climate change are key information needs for coastal planners and managers in support of climate adaptation. Assessing historical trends and potential socioeconomic impacts is especially difficult in the Arctic given limitations on availability of weather observations and historical impacts. This study utilizes a novel interdisciplinary approach that integrates archival analysis, observational data, and climate model downscaling to synthesize information on historical and projected impacts of extreme weather events in Nome, Alaska. Over 300 impacts (1990–2018) are identified based on analyses of the Nome Nugget newspaper articles and Storm Data entries. Historical impacts centered on transportation, community activities, and utilities. Analysis of observed and ERA5 reanalysis data indicates that impacts are frequently associated with high wind, extreme low temperatures, heavy snowfall events, and winter days above freezing. Downscaled output (2020–2100) from two climate models suggests that there will be changes in the frequency and timing of these extreme weather events. For example, extreme cold temperature is projected to decrease through the 2040s and then rarely occurs afterwards, and extreme wind events show little change before the 2070s. Significantly, our findings also reveal that not all weather-related extremes will change monotonically throughout the twenty-first century, such as extreme snowfall events that will increase through the 2030s before declining in the 2040s. The dynamical nature of projected changes in extreme events has implications for climate adaptation planning. Keywords Archival analysis . Alaska . Climate . Extreme events . Socio-economic impacts . Weather
* Nathan P. Kettle [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Extreme weather events and climate change pose significant risks to society, including impacts to transportation and infrastructure, public health, economies, and food and water security (Bouwer 2019). Losses from extreme weather events have grown dramatically over the past several decades from shifting exposures and vulnerabilities as well as increases in the frequency of some events, although impacts vary spatially and interannually. Some types of extreme events are likely to increase in the future (IPCC SREX 2012; USGCRP 2018). Planners seeking to support climate adaptation are increasingly interested in understanding how risks and impacts may change (Lempert et al. 2018). Addressing this need requires understanding historical climatologies and impacts as well as projections of how extr
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