Large zonal and temporal shifts in crops and cultivars coincide with warmer growing seasons in Finland
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Large zonal and temporal shifts in crops and cultivars coincide with warmer growing seasons in Finland Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio 1
&
Lauri Jauhiainen 2
Received: 11 March 2020 / Accepted: 2 July 2020 # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract In Finland, crop choices are limited, and cultivation is only possible in the regions where production risks and uncertainties are manageable. Climate change progresses rapidly at high latitudes and the thermal growing season is projected to become substantially longer in the future. This study aimed to monitor the regional shifts in major, secondary, minor and novel crops during 1996–2016 in Finland. We used long-term data from the Finnish Food Agency and evaluated changes in time to reach maturity of cultivars of model crops by using official variety trial data. Substantial changes were recorded in cultivation areas of crops, including expansion into new regions. Some of the traditional major crops such as oats (− 20%, i.e. − 75,700 ha from 1996 to 2016), barley (− 19%, − 105,700 ha) and potatoes (− 28%, − 4000 ha) have paved the way for emergent crops like faba beans (increase in area from 58 to 14,800 ha), peas (from 5700 to 13,400 ha), caraway (from 1900 to 18,400 ha) and spring oilseed rape (from 700 to 27,800 ha). Expansion per se was primarily enabled by climate warming, but success requires well-adapted cultivars, existing or emerging markets and industries or exports as well as motivating prices, policy support and valued ecosystem services. Keywords Climate change . Cultivation area . Major crop . Minor crop . Northern Europe
Introduction The agro-climate zones will migrate northwards and the suitable areas for crop growth will change in Europe due to climate warming (Ceglar et al. 2019). Gradual warming has already contributed to a lengthening of the growing season in favour of the northern Europe (Ceglar et al. 2019). Due to climate change, the growing season in Europe will be prolonged in by 1.5–2 months by the end of this century in the RCP8.5 scenario (Ruosteenoja et al. 2016). In Finland, the
Communicated by Luis Lassaletta Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01682-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio [email protected] 1
Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
2
Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), FI-31600 Jokioinen, Finland
thermal spring season is projected to start earlier, autumn to end later, and thermal summers will lengthen by some 10 days per 1 °C increase in the temperature of the region, while winters will get shorter at an even higher rate of change (Ruosteenoja et al. 2019). The likelihood having of years without a thermal winter (the daily mean temperature < 0 °C) will increase markedly by 2040–2069 (Ruosteenoja et al. 2019). Ceglar et al. (2019) estimated that the northward migration of agro-climate zones may be two times faster in the
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