Less Complexity Through Electrification?
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Less Complexity Through Electrification? It is a widely held view that the electrification of vehicles will lead to less complexity and, consequently, less value creation. Upon closer examination, however, what one sees is an open field of new tasks, not only in the powertrain. How much more or less complexity are we in for?
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VOLATILIT Y AND COMPLEXIT Y
ATZ worldwide 09|2020
The unpredictability of external factors makes it especially difficult to anticipate long-term developments in the industry. For instance, when China decided in 2019 to cut its subsidies for Battery-electric Vehicles (BEVs) by 50 % and eliminate those for electric vehicles with ranges of less than 250 km, the market responded immediately, as new BEV registrations plummeted and those for PHEVs spiked. Similarly, the German government’s decision at the beginning of June 2020 to subsidize electric vehicles was also a case of regulatory intervention some observers did not see coming. Setting aside the issue of whether BEVs are a cure-all, let us assume in what follows that the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) will continue to play a role in powering passenger vehicles, albeit more differentiated in its role depending on the applications. Electrification is therefore seen as encompassing all manner of Hybrid-electric Vehicles (HEVs) through to BEVs. But it is not only about the engine itself. As Prof. Hans-Christian Reuss of the Research Institute of Automotive Engineering and Vehicle Engines (FKFS) in Stuttgart (Germany) says: “Electrification is an enabler of a range of new technologies.” This is the case, for example, with auto-
mated driving systems, vehicle connectivity, and novel mobility concepts. So how much more (or less) complexity are we in for, and what opportunities will we encounter along the way? According to Anton Mayer of Magna, we need to look at system borders and timelines when assessing complexity. Moreover, in addition to t raditional platforms, equal attention needs to be given to HEVs, PHEVs and EVs. And this means that we will see an initial increase in complexity until the number of different electrification variants declines. In summary, Mayer suggests that while value added will be lost in conventional areas of production, it will increase disproportionately in the area of electronics, onboard and cloud services. POWERTRAIN DIVERSIT Y
Before moving on to these opportunities, let us take a look at the core of electrification – the powertrain. Magna’s powertrain portfolio currently includes conventional transmissions, variously scaled engine-electric hybrids, and purely electric powertrains of the sort presented by the company in 2019 in the e4 demo vehicle. Dedicated Hybrid Transmissions (DHTs) [1] have also emerged as linchpins in powertrain systems. The expanding role of electric motors has enabled a
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IN THE SP OTLIGHT
2030 Outside world
2025
End consumer functionalities
Software, OTA and “always new vehicle” Electronics hardware
Conventional vehicle content
1970
2000
2010
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