Mapping habitat suitability for gastrointestinal nematodiasis of ruminants in southern Caspian Sea littoral: a predicted

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Mapping habitat suitability for gastrointestinal nematodiasis of ruminants in southern Caspian Sea littoral: a predicted risk pattern model based on the MaxEnt M. Shadman 1 & B. Meshgi 1 & S. Fathi 1 & A. A. Hanafi-Bojd 2 & M. Majidi-Rad 1 & G. Modabbernia 1 Received: 29 February 2020 / Accepted: 24 September 2020 # Springer Nature B.V. 2020

Abstract Herein, we provide the ecological niches of gastrointestinal nematode infections in Guilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan provinces. For this purpose, 2688 fecal specimens of sheep and cattle were subjected to the flotation method. For modeling procedure, the results were analyzed by considering 23 bioclimatic and environmental variables as well as 96 points/locations. Maximum entropy (model MaxEnt) was used to visualize the spatial distribution of gastrointestinal nematodes. The relative importance of all variables was also assessed by using jackknife analysis. The highest proportion of sheep infection with strongyle-type egg was observed in Golestan province (57.8%) and the lowest in Guilan province (49.5%), and eggs per gram (EPG) was around 21– 29. The parasites with the highest proportion of infection in both domestic animals included strongyle-type eggs. Among the different bioclimatic and environmental variables, the biggest contributor to habitat suitability of the gastrointestinal nematode presence was found to be minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and altitude. The MaxEnt model was able to provide a suitable guidance for predicting the probability distribution of gastrointestinal nematodes under bioclimatic and environmental variables, and the findings pave way for integrated gastrointestinal nematode surveillance and control strategies in the southern strip of Caspian Sea. In addition, the low intensity of gastrointestinal nematodiasis in ruminants may be associated with the frequent administration of anthelmintic drugs, where actions are needed to investigate drug resistance in the areas concerned and to provide anthelmintic drugs administration in a targeted manner. Keywords Bioclimatic variables . Gastrointestinal nematodes . Geographic information system . MaxEnt . Southern Caspian Sea littoral

Introduction Today, helminthiasis is one of the problems of small and large ruminants. Climate change is considered a driving force for the risk of livestock helminths. Gastrointestinal

* B. Meshgi [email protected] 1

Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tehran, P.O.Box 14155-6453, Tehran, Iran

2

Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

nematodes, lungworms, and trematodes are the main causes of ruminants’ infection. Gastrointestinal helminths and hepatic trematodiasis are predominantly chronic, and the economic damage resulting from them is subclinically associated with decreased growth, milk production, and fertility (van Dijk