Mapping Thermal Physiology of Vector-Borne Diseases in a Changing Climate: Shifts in Geographic and Demographic Risk of
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH (C GOLDEN, SECTION EDITOR)
Mapping Thermal Physiology of Vector-Borne Diseases in a Changing Climate: Shifts in Geographic and Demographic Risk of Suitability Sadie J. Ryan 1,2,3
# Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Purpose of Review To describe a collection of recent work published on thermal suitability for vector-borne diseases, in which mapping approaches illustrated the geographic shifts, and spatial approaches describe the demographic impact anticipated with a changing climate. Recent Findings While climate change predictions of warming indicate an expansion in VBD suitability risk in some parts of the globe, while in others, optimal temperatures for transmission may be exceeded, as seen for malaria in Western Africa, resulting in declining risk. The thermal suitability of specific vector-pathogen pairs can have large impacts on geographic range of risk, and changes in human demography itself will intersect with this risk to create different vulnerability profiles over the coming century. Summary Using a physiological approach to describe the thermal suitability of transmission for vector-borne diseases allows us to illustrate the future risk as mapped information. This in turn can be coupled with demographic projections to anticipate changing risk, and even changing vulnerability within that population change. Keywords Climate change . Disease ecology . Malaria . Dengue . Zika . Citrus greening . Syndemics . Vulnerability . Geospatial
In recent years, the thermal biology of transmission has been described for a series of vector-borne diseases following an initial publication by Mordecai et al. [1], which described the optimal temperature for malaria transmission by Anopheles spp. mosquitoes. Since then, the thermal bounds of transmission have been systematically characterized for eleven mosquito-transmitted diseases of humans [2–7]. These methods were extended to a vector-borne plant pathogen, citrus greening, transmitted by a psyllid [8], and a livestock disease, bluetongue, transmitted by midges [9]. The methodology of assessing the individual thermal traits of coupled This article is part of the Topical Collection on Climate Change and Health * Sadie J. Ryan [email protected] 1
Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
2
Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
3
School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa
vector-parasite life histories establishes a temperaturedependent transmission curve, describing R0, the threshold of transmission, relative to its maximum. This provides a means to describe the temperature bounds of transmission, and to assess where thermal conditions are suitable to allow transmission to take place. The equation for R0 in these studies is modified from MacDonald’s 1957 equations describing malaria transmission [10] as: sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi a2 bcmpT R0 ¼ ð−ln pÞr comprising mosquit
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