Mapping Urban Growth and Its Relation to Seismic Hazards in Istanbul
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Mapping Urban Growth and Its Relation to Seismic Hazards in Istanbul Cihan Uysal1 • Derya Maktav1 • Christopher Small2 Received: 13 February 2017 / Accepted: 29 May 2018 Ó Indian Society of Remote Sensing 2018
Abstract In Istanbul, one of the most densely populated cities of Turkey, the population has grown rapidly over the last 30 years. In addition to being one of the rapidly flourishing cities in Europe, the city is positioned on the seismically active North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The form and rate of Istanbul’s fast urban growth has serious implications for seismic hazards. There have been some studies to map lateral urban growth for the city but they do not give satisfactory information about vertical urban growth and seismic hazards. We use DMSP night lights and Landsat data to map changes in land cover-land use in and around the city since 1984, and determine relations of these changes with the NAF. Changes in land use and intensity of development are identified by changes in night light brightness while changes in land cover are identified by changes in land surface reflectance. Aggregate changes in reflectance are represented as changes in subpixel mixtures of the most functionally and spectrally distinct spectral endmembers of land cover. Using standardized global endmembers, SVD composite images were produced for 1984, 2000 and 2011 and fraction change (dSVD) maps were produced for the decadal intervals. The results show that most of the urban expansion has occurred near the NAF. This has serious implications for seismic hazards in the future if the progression of large earthquakes continues to move westward toward the city. Keywords DMSP Earthquake North Anatolian Fault Spectral mixture model Urban growth
Introduction The percentage of population in cities was about 25% in 1950 increasing to 43% in 1980 and to 76% in 2010 in Turkey (TurkStat 2014). There have been large cities, such as Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa and Adana where urban changes are being experienced and which draw migrations (Maktav et al. 2005; Maktav and Erbek 2005). In 1980, 10% of Turkey’s population was living in Istanbul (4,741,890) and then this increased to 18% by 2011 (13,624,240) (TurkStat 2014). Compared to the other cities in Turkey, Istanbul provides the best economic opportunities as it has more industrial and trade areas. Therefore,
& Derya Maktav [email protected] 1
Geomatics Engineering Dept., Istanbul Technical Univ. (ITU), 34469 Istanbul, Turkey
2
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia Univ., New York 10964, USA
migrations to the city continues from the other regions of the country (Geymen and Baz 2008). Istanbul is located very close to the NAF that is known as one of the foremost hazardous earthquake regions all over the world (Figs. 1 and 2). This fault system extends along northern Turkey for more than 1400 km from 41°E to 29°E and accommodates about 25 mm/year right-lateral slip between Eurasian and Anatolian plates (McHugh et al. 2014; McClusky et al. 2000; Straub et
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