Development of framework for assessment of impact of climate change in a command of water resource project
- PDF / 1,397,093 Bytes
- 20 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 83 Downloads / 163 Views
Ó Indian Academy of Sciences (0123456789().,-volV)(0123456 789().,-volV)
Development of framework for assessment of impact of climate change in a command of water resource project R K JAISWAL1,*, A K LOHANI2 and H L TIWARI3 1 CIHRC, National 2 National Institute 3
Institute of Hydrology, WALMI Campus, Bhopal, India. of Hydrology, Jal Vigyan Bhavan, Roorkee, India. Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India. *Corresponding author. e-mail: rkjaiswal˙[email protected] MS received 10 August 2019; revised 16 October 2019; accepted 31 October 2019
A framework comprising of four interdependent modules has been developed to analyse demand–supply scenarios under future uncertainties of climate change in an irrigation command where any mismatch can aAect sustainability and wellbeing of the rural population. In the absence of runoA records, the water balance module of framework computes daily runoA from catchment considering all inputs, outputs and losses from the system. The climatic parameters and rainfall were forecasted for three future projected periods using statistical downscaling for six different climate projections. The Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT), a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model and SWATCUP, an application for calibration and uncertainty analysis of SWAT model have been used to calibrate and validate a model for the base period (BP:1981–2015) and further applied to generate multiple future runoA series to asses water availability. The module-IV was designed to compute evapotranspiration using ETo calculator (a software to compute evapotranspiration) and then irrigation demand for Tandula command in the Chhattisgarh state of India considering present overall eDciency of 51% for the base (1991–2015) and future assessment periods. The analysis of all projected scenarios suggested an increase of annual temperature from present 26.2°–27.1°, 27.3° and 27.8°C during near (FP-1: 2020–2035), mid (FP-2: 2046–2064) and far century (FP-3: 2081–2099) periods, respectively, may demand more water which could be adversely aAected by reduced rainfall. The water requirement may vary in the range of 410.4–464 MCM and supply from 426.2 to 453.2 MCM based on future projection from GCMs. Keywords. GCM; downscale; demand–supply analysis.
climate
change;
1. Introduction Climate change likely to aAect almost all the sectors of life and society (Rosenzweig et al. 2004; Scibek and Allen 2006; Githui et al. 2009; IPCC 2008, 2012, 2013; Liew et al. 2014; Segura et al. 2014; Kulkarni et al. 2016). Lugina et al. (2006)
crop
water
requirement;
evapotranspiration;
analyzed mean monthly and annual temperatures and concluded that the 12 out of 15 warmest years recorded in the history occurred after 1990. Mendelsohn (2008) reviewed various economic studies to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture in developing countries like India, Brazil, South Africa and South America and developed
58
Page 2 of 20
countries like the USA using Ricardian analysis and concluded that the
Data Loading...
