Modeling Housing Demand Structure: An Example of Beijing
In this chapter, a housing demand model is developed for classifying households with different needs and estimating the appropriate dwelling size for different households. The model is then applied to explore the housing demand of Beijing residents with q
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Modeling Housing Demand Structure: An Example of Beijing Xiao-lu Gao
Abstract In this chapter, a housing demand model is developed for classifying households with different needs and estimating the appropriate dwelling size for different households. The model is then applied to explore the housing demand of Beijing residents with questionnaire survey data. With a “surplus demand” indicator being incorporated to the model, the “true demands” of various families for dwelling size are predicted. The results contribute to the decision support of housing policies. Keywords Housing demand • Housing consumption • Dwelling size • Interaction model • Partition analysis
10.1
Introduction
Housing policies serve the purpose of providing housing corresponding to the actual demand. Through appropriate means of planning, regulation, taxation, and providing public housing, it aims to ensure the balance of supply and demand so that the reasonable demand of families can be met. A clear understanding of the actual housing demand is the basis for the management of housing demand. In particular, how to define demand groups, and how to determine the suitable levels of housing provision for different people, are issues of great importance. However, existing studies on these issues have been inadequate. So far, the impact of macroeconomic and geographical factors on housing demand and housing consumption has been emphasized, for example, per capita GDP, levels of urbanization, natural environments and dwelling customs, average X.-l. Gao (*) Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun, Chaoyang, Beijing 100101, China e-mail: [email protected] M. Kawakami et al. (eds.), Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development: Approaches 173 for Achieving Sustainable Urban Form in Asian Cities, Strategies for Sustainability, DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-5922-0_10, # Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
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income levels, financial circumstances, economic cycles, and so on (Jin and Zhang 2003; Wang and Ma 2005; Han and Xiao 2006; Xiong 2007; Shen 2007; Zhang 2007; Liu 2002). Many studies have proposed models for predicting the average level of future housing demand, and the total level of the housing demand was forecasted by multiplying the average level with the expected population (Lavender 1990; Tse et al. 1999; Akintoye and Skitmore 1994; Goh 1996, 1999; Thomas et al. 2008). The differences in demands across people groups were commonly perceived; however, the demands were naively separated in most cases, for example, into demands of high-income, middle-income, and low-income families; demands for survival, development, and enjoyment; demands for consumption and for investment; and demands for shelter, basic function, comfort, and luxury. Then the needs of each kind for housing size were decided based on expert knowledge or experience. Obviously, these methods are based on many subjective assumptions. In rece
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