Modeling transportation demand in short sea shipping
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Modeling transportation demand in short sea shipping Tiago A. Santos and C. Guedes Soares Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon 1049-001, Portugal. E-mails: [email protected]; c.guedes.soares@ centec.tecnico.ulisboa.pt
Abstract
The objective of this study is to develop a generic model for evaluating the potential demand for short sea shipping (SSS) in a given route. This model can be used in feasibility studies for novel SSS services, when shipping companies evaluate the potential demand for the service, considering the amount of cargo carried between regions and the potential for modal shift from road to sea. A model of costs and transit time across the entire supply chain is developed for unimodal and intermodal transport solutions based on cargo ro-ro ships. The model includes decision-making criteria on the preferable transport solution. The model is applied to the route between Leixões and Lisbon, for which the overall demand for cargo transport is obtained from statistical data relating to exports and imports split by NUTS 2 regions.1 The model produces the amounts of cargo that could potentially be carried annually through each transport solution, for different freight rates and ship speeds, and allowing the identification of NUTS 2 regions for which the SSS solution is competitive. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the effects of changes in several model parameters on results.
Maritime Economics & Logistics advance online publication, 24 March 2016; doi:10.1057/mel.2016.9
Keywords: short sea shipping; ro-ro shipping; liner shipping; transportation demand; cost models; logistics
Introduction A significant quantity of European exports and imports is currently carried by road, thus requiring that many different countries are crossed during the journey, imposing considerable traffic demand on their road networks and contributing consequently to congestion, maintenance issues and pollution. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1479-2931 Maritime Economics & Logistics www.palgrave-journals.com/mel/
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Santos and Guedes Soares
Furthermore, most European economies are now closely interlinked, entailing substantial flows of goods. Throughout the past years, road transport of cargo in Europe has been severely restricted by EU and national policies focused on promoting the shift of cargo transport from road to other more sustainable transport modes such as the maritime mode, in this case mainly short sea shipping (SSS), rail (see Atlantic Corridor, 2014) and inland waterways (where available). Measures aiming at restricting cargo transport by road are very diverse. Bans in respect of driving in weekends, at night or on holydays are in place in different countries. Authorities are also paying increased attention to the number of driving hours of truck drivers. Special dedicated toll and tariff systems have been introduced in order to make sure that foreign trucks contribute proportionally to the maint
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