Modeling, monitoring and forecasting of drought in south and southwestern Iran, Iran
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Modeling, monitoring and forecasting of drought in south and southwestern Iran, Iran Behroz Sobhani1 · Vahid Safarian Zengir1 Received: 9 September 2019 / Accepted: 25 September 2019 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019
Abstract Drought is one of the natural hazards that has hit Iran over the past decades with serious environmental hazards, including those in southern parts of Iran. Researches done in the southern region of Iran in the field of statistical modeling of drought are rare. Therefore, the aim of this study is to fuzzify the SMS index, modeling and forecasting droughts in the southern part of Iran. For this study, 29-year-old temperature and precipitation data were used in 28 synoptic stations in the southern part of Iran during the period 1908–2018. In this study, three drought indexes SPI, MCZI, SET were separately calculated and combined and the fuzzy index SMS was obtained. Then, in ANFIS and RBF neural network models were compared and modelled in MATLAB software and simulated for the next 16 years, and finally, using the TOPSIS multivariate decisionmaking model, the drought-affected areas for the coming years, 16 next years, they were prioritized. The findings of the study showed that the new fuzzy index of the three indicators reflected drought with acceptable accuracy. In assessing the two models of ANFIS and RBF, the RBF model with a RMSE value of 1.15 and R2 values of 0.9161 have the highest accuracy than the ANFIS model for prediction. According to the SMS fuzzy index, stations such as Kerman, Yasuj and Abadan with drought of 0.69, 0.97, and 0.89, respectively were exposed more to future drought. Also, based on Topsis model, central and northern stations such as Koohrang and Safashahr with drought of 0.19 and 0.21, respectively, were subjected lower to drought in the following years. Keywords Statistical analysis · Risk · RBF and ANFIS models · Simulation · Fuzzy
Introduction The phenomenon of drought can occur due to fluctuations and climate change in different parts of the planet and has many climatic hazards in various parts of human life. However, the drought is characterized by climate disasters with rainfall shortages, humidity and rising temperatures relative to normal conditions (Zeinali and SafarianZingir 2017). Drought monitoring is one of the most important This article is the result of the work of the authors, and all of them are well-aware of the fact that it has been sent to Journal of Modeling Earth Systems and Environment. The article has not been published yet in another magazine and is currently not under any check-in orders in any other magazines. * Vahid Safarian Zengir [email protected] 1
Department of Physical Geography, Climatology, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
components of drought management in drought-affected areas (Zeinali et al. 2017). Also, the phenomenon of drought is a clear sign of climate fluctuations that affects human societies more than other natural phenomena (Paras
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