Monitoring and investigating the possibility of forecasting drought in the western part of Iran
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Monitoring and investigating the possibility of forecasting drought in the western part of Iran Vahid Safarian Zengir 1 & Behrouz Sobhani 1 & Sayyad Asghari 1 Received: 24 October 2019 / Accepted: 4 June 2020 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2020
Abstract Drought is not specific to a particular region and is affecting different parts of the world, one of these areas being the western half of Iran, which has been suffering from this phenomenon in the recent years. The western half of Iran has been affected by natural hazards in the recent decades. One of these natural hazards is reduced rainfall, which manifests itself in the form of drought. The effects of drought in the different parts of the human society have been strongly felt in the recent years. Therefore, it is important to address this issue. The purpose of this study is to monitor and analyze drought in the western part of Iran. To do this, the MODIS satellite data, the NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), and the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Project) satellite were used from 2000 to 2018, and for better analysis, they were compared with the fuzzy index of T.I.B.I (combined index based on four indices: SET, SPI, SEB, and MCZI) neural network. To calculate the T.I.B.I index, the ground climate parameters of precipitation, temperature, sunshine, minimum relative humidity, and wind speed were used; to extract satellite data and images, Google Earth Engine was used. The results of the study indicate that drought has started to weaken in the western part of Iran since 2010, and in 2016 and in the recent years, it has reached its peak. The northern and central regions of the study area were more prone to drought than elsewhere. Approximately 69.80% of the area is subject to severe drought. In order to deal with the catastrophe caused by drought that has many dangerous effects, it requires careful planning in the future. Keywords Soil moisture . Evaporation and transpiration . Satellite meteorology . Drought sensitivity index
Introduction Problems with water scarcity were caused by natural and human factors. They can have irreversible effects on human life, other living things, and the environment at the regional and trans-regional levels. Creating and exacerbating water scarcity crises can have adverse effects on the economy, society, and agriculture (Sobhani and Safarianzengir 2019a; Sobhani et al. Responsible Editor: Zhihua Zhang * Behrouz Sobhani [email protected] Vahid Safarian Zengir [email protected] Sayyad Asghari [email protected] 1
Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
2019b). The frequency, severity, and extent of drought are very important aspects. Given the issues and problems caused by drought, monitoring and prediction for precision prevention and planning to control the risk of future drought in the region and its probability of occurrence by using precise model and method are essential. The southwestern and western parts of Iran are some
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