Modeling the Impact of Behavior Change on the Spread of Ebola
We create a compartmental mathematical model to analyze the role of behavior change in slowing the spread of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the 2014–2015 Western Africa epidemic. Our model incorporates behavior change, modeled as decreased contact rates
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Abstract We create a compartmental mathematical model to analyze the role of behavior change in slowing the spread of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the 2014– 2015 Western Africa epidemic. Our model incorporates behavior change, modeled as decreased contact rates between susceptible and infectious individuals, the prevention of traditional funerals, and/or increased access to medical facilities. We derived the basic reproductive number for the model, and approximated the parameter values for the spread of the EVD in Monrovia. We used sensitivity analysis to quantify the relative importance of the timing, and magnitude, of the population reducing their contact rates, avoiding the traditional burial practices, and having access to medical treatment facilities. We found that reducing the number of contacts made by infectious individuals in the general population is the most effective intervention method for mitigating an EVD epidemic. While healthcare interventions delayed the onset of the epidemic, healthcare alone is insufficient to stop the epidemic in the model. Keywords Ebola virus disease · EVD · Mathematical model · Reproductive number · Behavior changes · Epidemic model · Differential equations · Western Africa
J.R. Conrad · L. Xue · J. Dewar · J.M. Hyman (B) Department of Mathematics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA e-mail: [email protected] J.R. Conrad e-mail: [email protected] L. Xue e-mail: [email protected] J. Dewar e-mail: [email protected] © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 G. Chowell and J.M. Hyman (eds.), Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_2
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1 Introduction Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a zoonotic tropical disease [36] with an average fatality rate of 50 % and a range of 25–90 % in past outbreaks. It was first identified in 1976 in Yambuku, Zaire and Nzara, South Sudan [34]. While its circulation among humans is rare, around 30 outbreaks occurred since EVD was first identified, causing less than 1,600 deaths before 2014 [36]. However, the current West Africa 2014 outbreak has led to more than 28,600 probable cases and 11,300 deaths [32]. Typical symptoms of the disease include fever, weakness, and diarrhea. Bleeding complications occur in less than half of all infectious people, and heavy bleeding is relatively rare. EVD’s incubation period, i.e. the time from infection of the virus to onset of symptoms, is typically between five and seven days, but can range from 2 to 21 days. Humans are not infectious until they develop symptoms [34]. Blood samples usually start to show positive results by PCR one day before the symptoms appear [36], which have been used to confirm 15,216 cases since the onset of the West Africa 2014 EVD epidemic [32]. Early supportive care with rehydration, symptomatic treatment improves survival rate, but no licensed treatments proven to neutralize the virus are available yet, though blood, immunological, and drug therapies are under deve
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