Multi-criteria modeling for land suitability evaluation of the urban greenbelts in Iran
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Multi‑criteria modeling for land suitability evaluation of the urban greenbelts in Iran G. Rabbani1 · S. Madanian2 · M. R. Mansouri Daneshvar3 Received: 14 July 2020 / Accepted: 8 October 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract In this study, a multi-criteria model was considered for land suitability evaluation (LSE) of the urban greenbelt (UGB) in 25 major cities of Iran. On this basis, the greenbelt suitability index (SI) and the environmental change index (ΔY) of the urban sprawl were estimated for the present and future periods. The research modeling was constructed based on some global datasets and factors (i.e., elevation, slope, soil, land use, land cover, agriculture, precipitation, river and road networks, and settlement sprawl) to evaluate greenbelt suitability. Spatial modeling revealed the highest greenbelt suitability (with SI values above 0.8) for the hinterlands of eight cities, including Hamadan, Zanjan, Sanandaj, Rasht, Sari, Gorgan, Qazvin, and Kermanshah. Results also revealed the estimated ΔY values of the urban sprawl between 0.07 and 2.32 for all case studies, relating to a mean sprawl disturbance (ΔX) of 0.27 in the status quo (2018). In the probable future time (2030), the ΔY values were estimated between 0.68 and 5.89 with a mean sprawl disturbance (ΔX) of 0.73 for all case studies, revealing a large increase in the thresholds of the environmental change index. The increase of the ΔY values in the future time indicates the necessity of new suitable UGB plans with new regulation and optimum to curb the urban land use degradation during future developments. Keywords Environmental change · Land suitability evaluation (LSE) · Spatial modeling · Sprawl expansion · Urban greenbelt (UGB)
Introduction The greenbelts are important tools in the urban containment policies (Dockerill and Sturzaker 2019), which usually constitute a physical space combating the urban growth and affecting the shape of cities by surrounding * G. Rabbani [email protected] S. Madanian [email protected] M. R. Mansouri Daneshvar [email protected] http://www.researcherid.com/rid/G-2881-2012 1
College of Geography and Urban Planning, Research Institute of Shakhes Pajouh, Isfahan, Iran
2
Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Universidade Lusófona de Humanidades E Tecnologias, Lisbon, Portugal
3
Department of Geography and Natural Hazards, Research Institute of Shakhes Pajouh, Isfahan, Iran
urban patches with a belt of forestry, greenery, or open areas (Wang et al. 2002; Cadieux et al. 2013). A greenbelt comprises some physical spaces around the urban areas to curb their sprawl (Han et al. 2017; Kardani-Yazd et al. 2019). The greenbelt concept in the major cities of the UK, France, Japan, and Korea follows prime functions to control urban sprawl and to improve the urban ecosystems (e.g., Kahn and Abbasi 2000; Mortberg and Wallentinus 2000; Yokohari et al. 2000; Bae and Jun 2003; Gant et al. 2011; Park et al. 2017). Nowadays, some worldwide analys
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