Multiple environmental factors analysis of flash flood risk in Upper Hanjiang River, southern China
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ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND BIOGEOCHEMISTRY OF ECOSYSTEMS
Multiple environmental factors analysis of flash flood risk in Upper Hanjiang River, southern China Ming Zhong 1 & Tao Jiang 1 & Kun Li 1 & Qiaoqian Lu 1 & Jiao Wang 1 & Jiajun Zhu 1
Received: 7 October 2019 / Accepted: 2 December 2019 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019
Abstract Identifying the environmental factors and analyzing the causal mechanism of flash floods help to manage the risk. Maximum 24-h precipitation (MP), digital elevation (DE), slope degree (SD), soil type (ST), drainage density (DD), and vegetation cover (VC) are selected as the risk factors of flash floods in this study. Precipitation is the important meteorological components in flash floods; thus spatial characteristics of precipitation trend have been analyzed by using Mann-Kendall tests, and a positive trend of precipitation in Upper Hanjiang River is detected. Then, association rule mining approach is proposed to investigate the multiple environmental factors of flash floods, in which both single and multiple dimension data mining have been conducted by Apriori algorithm. Considering the high rate of 5-year return period floods in the flash flood inventory, further association rule mining after sampling has been conducted in order to deeply mine the causal patterns of flash floods in different risk magnitudes. Results show that soil type, slope degree, and digital elevation are the dominant environmental factors of flash floods in the study area, and precipitation is one of the important causal factors in severe flash flood hazards. It is also highlighted that flash floods might easily occur even with a slight rainfall present due to the instability of sand clay and saturated soil moisture. The proposed novel use of field data and data mining has the potential for providing procedures and solutions for an effective interpretation of flash flood mechanism. The results are expected to be applicable for decision-making and sustainable management in flooding risk. Keywords Flash floods . Mann-Kendall . Association rule mining . Environmental factors . Hanjiang River
Introduction Due to the characteristics of rapidness and suddenness, flash floods are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in China. Flash flood hazards are related to many different causes, including hydrological factors, geological factors, topography characteristics, and climatic influences (Karamouz et al. 2011). Identifying the causes of flash flood events helps to analyze flash flood mechanisms and to give possible solutions for future flash floods.
Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues * Tao Jiang [email protected] 1
School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
According to previous studies, flood risk zoning (Poortvliet et al. 2019; Milanesi et al. 2015) and flood early warning system (Li et al. 2019) have been used to describe the nonlinear relationship between indexes and risk levels. A number of multi-criteria analytic methods have b
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