New Findings in Long-Wave Research
This book presents new methods for the analysis of time series and the identification of long waves. In Part One it is shown that new time series analyses confirm the existence of Kondratieff long waves in economic growth for the 19th and 20th centuries.
- PDF / 30,133,060 Bytes
- 355 Pages / 397 x 612 pts Page_size
- 78 Downloads / 171 Views
Also by Alfred Kleinknecht and from the same publishers: INNOVATION PATTERNS IN CRISIS AND PROSPERITY: Schumpeter's Long Cycle Reconsidered
New Findings in Long-Wave Research Edited by
Alfred Kleinknecht Senior Economist University of Amsterdam
Ernest Mandel Professor Emeritlls Free University of Brussels (Flemish Section)
and
Immanuel Wallerstein Director of the Fernand Braudel Center State Unil'ersity of New York, Binghamton
M
St. Martin's Press
© Alfred Kleinknecht. Ernest Mandel and Immanuel Wallerstein 1992
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1992 All rights reserved. No reproduction. copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written pennission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright. Designs and Patents Act 1988. or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WI P 9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published in Great Britain 1992 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills. Basingstoke. Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-22452-4 ISBN 978-1-349-22450-0 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-22450-0
First published in the United States of America 1992 by Scholarly and Reference Division. ST. MARTIN'S PRESS. INC.. 175 Fifth Avenue. New York. N.Y. 10010 ISBN 978-0-312-07275-9 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data New findings in long-wave research/edited by Alfred Kleinknecht, Ernest Mandel and Immanuel Wallerstein. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-312-07275-9 1. Long waves (Economics) 2. Profit. I. Kleinknecht. Alfred. 1951- . II. Mandel. Ernest. III. Wallerstein. Immanuel Maurice. 1930- . HB3279.N49 1992 338.5'42--35 years duration) long waves 16!>-15 year. duration)
Figure 4.5 World (I) industrial production 1780-1979
'970
'880
88
Long Waves in Aggregate Production Series
this purpose I will define four amplitude functions for filtering the detrended series: Tl T4
= (45/40, 0); 1'2 = (35/30, = (15/12, 0).
0); T3
= (25/20, 0);
These amplitude functions define 4 different types of cyclicity. For example, according to Tl, the duration of the cycles can range between 65 and 40 years, whereas according to T4 it can vary between 65 and 12 years. The smaller the passband of the filter, the higher the smoothing effect of the lowpass filter. It is obvious that with an increasing smoothing effect, the long-term cycles become more and more 'independent' from the real historical events, which are represented in the trend-free values. This smoothing effect can be extended to such a degree that the smoothed component finally runs without any relation to the real historical events (that is, in t
