Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction

This book provides the reader with a holistic approach to earthquake modeling and prediction. The lithosphere is studied as a hierarchical nonlinear dissipative system in which the predictability of earthquakes, aftershock activities and the variation of

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Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH

Physics and Astronomy

ONLINE LIBRARY

http://www.springer.de/phys/

Springer Series in Synergetics http://www.springer.de/phys/books/sssyn Series Editor Hermann Haken Institut fUr Theoretische Physik und Synergetik der Universitat Stuttgart 70550 Stuttgart, Germany

and Center for Complex Systems Florida Atlantic University Boca Raton, FL 33431, USA

Members of the Editorial Board Ake Andersson, Stockholm, Sweden Bernold Fiedler, Berlin, Germany Yoshiki Kuramoto, Kyoto, Japan Luigi Lugiato, Milan, Italy Jiirgen Parisi, Oldenburg, Germany Peter Schuster, Wien, Austria Didier Sornette, Los Angeles, CA, USA, and Nice, France Manuel G. Velarde, Madrid, Spain

SSSyn - An Interdisciplinary Series on Complex Systems The success of the Springer Series in Synergetics has been made possible by the contributions of outstanding authors who presented their quite often pioneering results to the science community well beyond the borders of a special discipline. Indeed, interdisciplinarity is one of the main features of this series. But interdisciplinarity is not enough: The main goal is the search for common features of self-organizing systems in a great variety of seemingly quite different systems, or, still more precisely speaking, the search for general principles underlying the spontaneous formation of spatial, temporal or functional structures. The topics treated may be as diverse as lasers and fluids in physics, pattern formation in chemistry, morphogenesis in biology, brain functions in neurology or self-organization in a city. As is witnessed by several volumes, great attention is being paid to the pivotal interplay between deterministic and stochastic processes, as well as to the dialogue between theoreticians and experimentalists. All this has contributed to a remarkable cross-fertilization between disciplines and to a deeper understanding of complex systems. The timeliness and potential of such an approach are also mirrored - among other indicators - by numerous interdisciplinary workshops and conferences allover the world.

Vladimir I. Keilis-Borok Alexandre A. Soloviev (Eds.)

Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction With 133 Figures and 51 Tables

i

Springer

Professor Dr. Vladimir 1. Keilis-Borok Professor Dr. Alexandre A. Soloviev Russian Academy of Sciences International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics Warshavskoye sh., 79, kor. 2 117556 Moscow, Russia

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Nonlinear dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction/Vladimir I. Keilis-Borok, Alexandre A. Soloviev (eds.). p.cm.- (Springer series in synergetics, ISSN 0172-7389) Inc1udes biblographical references. ISBN 978-3-642-07806-4 ISBN 978-3-662-05298-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-05298-3 1. Earthquake prediction. 2. Geodynamics-Mathematical models. I. Keilis-Borok, Vladimir Isaakovich. II. Soloviev, Alexandre A., 1947- III. Springer series in synergetics (Unnumbered) QE538.8 .N66 2002 551.22-dc21 200203