Characteristics of Internal Gravity Waves and Earthquake Prediction
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HYSICS
Characteristics of Internal Gravity Waves and Earthquake Prediction Academician V. V. Adushkina, V. I. Nifadievb, B. B. Chenb, S. I. Popelc,*, G. A. Kogaib,
A. Yu. Dubinskiic, and P. G. Weidlerd Received May 28, 2020; revised May 29, 2020; accepted June 1, 2020
Abstract—On the basis of the data on perturbations in the Earth’s atmosphere recorded before and after 52 significant earthquakes that occurred during the period from 1997 to 2018 in the Asian region, it is shown that the amplitudes of internal gravity waves that originated from seismically active regions can be used at the saturation threshold level for a short-term indication of upcoming seismic events. Keywords: earthquakes, seismically active regions, internal gravity waves, amplitude of temperature perturbations, short-term earthquake forecast DOI: 10.1134/S1028334X20080036
The existing methods for predicting especially dangerous natural geophysical phenomena have low efficiency due to the short forecast time, which is insufficient to take appropriate measures to prevent catastrophic consequences, especially earthquakes. A short-term earthquake forecast based on physical precursors [1] is usually implemented as registration of abnormal behavior of various geophysical parameters. The question of which of those are actual precursors and which are better and more reliable, however, remains open to this day [2]. Internal gravitational waves (IGWs), generated in seismically active regions, mainly due to the release of lithospheric gases into the atmosphere (see, e.g., [3, 4]), can be regarded as one of the mechanisms of the interaction between the lithosphere and the atmosphere. These waves are recorded before and after earthquakes (see, e.g., [5, 6]). Analysis of the data on disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere before and after earthquakes in Uzbekistan on May 26, 2013, in Kyrgyzstan on January 8, 2007, and in Kazakhstan on January 28, 2013, revealed previously unknown changes in the parameters of internal gravitational waves over several days before the earthquakes [7], which in some cases a Institute
of Geosphere Dynamics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119334 Russia b Kyrgyz Russian Slavic University, 720000 Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan c Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 117997 Russia dKarlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus North, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, D-76344 Germany *e-mail: [email protected]
can be used as a short-term forecast of an upcoming seismic event. For a better interpretation, the amount of measured data on disturbances in the Earth’s atmosphere before and after earthquakes should be increased. In this paper, we analyze the IGWs observed before and after each of the 52 earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 5.0 (Richter scale), which occurred during the period from 1997 to 2018, to establish the possibility of using such waves as earthquake precursors. In contrast to [7], where only three earthquakes and, mainly, the behavior of the characteristic wavelengths of the IGWs were considered, here, the possi
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