Numerical Simulation and Risk Analysis of Coastal Inundation in Land Reclamation Areas: A Case Study of the Pearl River
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Numerical Simulation and Risk Analysis of Coastal Inundation in Land Reclamation Areas: A Case Study of the Pearl River Estuary DU Mei1), 2), 4), HOU Yijun1), 2), 3), 4), *, GUO Yunxia1), 2), 4), and WANG Kai1), 2), 4) 1) Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China 2) University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3) Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China 4) Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China (Received December 29, 2019; revised April 8, 2020; accepted April 22, 2020) © Ocean University of China, Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2020 Abstract Coastal inundation results in many human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, an inundation model with an unstructured mesh was developed using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models to simulate 43 inundation events from 1998 to 2018. A combined wind-pressure field derived from the assimilation windpressure model was used to drive the coupled ADCIRC-SWAN model. On the basis of the model results, a sensitivity study of the influence of land reclamation on coastal inundation was conducted. The results of the study showed that coastline changes caused by reclamation significantly influence the distribution of coastal inundation, particularly in areas where narrow waterways, bays, and peninsulas are newly formed. Combining the extreme inundation events calculated using the Gumbel and Weibull distributions, the 10-year, 50-year, 100-year, and 200-year return coastal inundations were obtained for the Pearl River Estuary in China. The risk of coastal inundation was analyzed according to the probability of the inundation depth exceeding 1 m. A hazard grade zoning map was drawn to guide disaster relief and mitigation in the reclamation area. Key words
coupled ADCIRC-SWAN model; coastline change; coastal inundation; Pearl River Estuary; risk analysis
1 Introduction Coastal inundations are induced by destructive storm surges (induced by tropical cyclones), which are common in many coastal areas. The losses caused by destructive storm surges and coastal inundations are significant for coastal cities with increasing population and tropical cyclone frequency and intensified coastal development (Hallegatte et al., 2013; Kang et al., 2016; Yin et al., 2016; Tomiczek et al., 2017). Thus, coastal inundations need to be investigated to reduce losses. Previous studies have focused on simulating the dynamic processes of storm surges by using numerical models (Jones and Davies, 2009; Lin et al., 2009; Feng et al., 2011, 2012; Choi et al., 2013). These studies play a guiding role in simulating coastal inundation, such as the selection of the model and the construction of the mesh. Bhaskaran et al. (2014) and Yin et al. (2016) simulated coastal inundations during cyclones. Their results showed *
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