On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change
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On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change Pablo Ruiz‑Salcines1,2 · Christian M. Appendini1,3 · Paulo Salles1,3 · Wilmer Rey1,4 · Jonathan L. Vigh5 Received: 4 May 2020 / Accepted: 11 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract This study presents a new approach to assess storm surge risk from tropical cyclones under climate change by direct calculation of the local flood levels using a limited number of events with an associated probability. The approach is based on the near-worst-case flood scenario, associated with a known tropical cyclone wind intensity probability (return period). We applied the method for the locality of Manzanillo, Colima, Mexico, using synthetic tropical cyclones derived from six different general circulation models for the present and future climates under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The synthetic events allowed the characterization of the wind intensity for the present and future climates for a given return period, as well as to determine the key tropical cyclones parameters related to storm surge. For Hurricane Patricia (2015), the strongest tropical cyclone to impact the region, we determined that its 95 m/s winds have a return period above 4000 years for the present climate and 198 years in a future climate scenario. Using Hurricane Patricia’s peak wind intensity, we created hypothetical events representing all possible approaches of tropical cyclones (211 events) to Manzanillo. We forced a hydrodynamic model with the hypothetical events over a mesh created with LiDAR-derived topography and then calculated the storm surge to create the near-worst-case flood scenario based on the maximum envelopes of water (MEOWs) and the maximum of MEOWs. Using those results, we created flood risk maps at city block level based on the combination of flood hazard and socioeconomic vulnerability maps. The presented method provides a tool for tropical cyclones storm surge hazard and risk assessment by generating near-worst-case flood maps under projected climates using a limited set of hypothetical events. Keywords Natural hazards · Public policy · Risk management · Risk atlas · Hurricanes
* Christian M. Appendini [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the main hazards affecting Mexico, as the country is between two cyclogenic areas, the Atlantic and the Eastern North Pacific (EPAC) basins. While TCs in the Atlantic basin affect a large number of countries, EPAC TCs primarily affect Mexico, representing a considerable hazard, since the EPAC is the second most active basin in the world. Although many EPAC TCs travel westward away from Mexico once they form, not all do. Landfalls tend to occur on the Mexican Pacific coast every year or two, sometimes with devastating consequences. In 1959, a major Hurricane (unnamed) caused more than 1500 fatalities (Jáuregu
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