Assessment of the potential storm tide inundation hazard under climate change: case studies of Southeast China coast
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RESEARCH PAPER
Assessment of the potential storm tide inundation hazard under climate change: case studies of Southeast China coast Bingchuan Nie1,2 · Qingyong Wuxi3,4 · Jiachun Li3,4 · Feng Xu1,2 Received: 4 March 2020 / Revised: 28 May 2020 / Accepted: 29 June 2020 © The Chinese Society of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Four typical cases of storm tide inundation at one of the typical storm surge prone areas in China and worldwide, i.e. Southeast China coast, are presented to demostrate the impact of climate change. It is relied on the statistical trend analysis of tropical cyclone intensification (TCI) and sea level rise (SLR) considering temporally non-stationary and spatially non-uniform effects, numerical analysis taking into account the tide-surge-wave coupling effect and GIS-based analysis for inundation evaluation. The results show that the high sea surface elevation tends to occur in the bays and around the estuaries. The maximal sea surface elevations of the worst situation at present without considering TCI and SLR (i.e. scenario S2) are 6.06 m, 5.82 m and 5.67 m around Aojiang, Feiyunjiang and Oujiang river estuaries, respectively. Whereas, the maximal sea surface elevations for the three estuaries would increase to 7.02 m, 6.67 m and 6.44 m, respectively, when the non-stationary extreme wind speed of 100-year recurrence period and SLR equivalent to the situation of 2100s (i.e. scenario S4) are taking into account. The potential inundation area of scenario S4 would expand by 108% to about 798 km2 compared with scenario S2. In addition, the remotely sensed maps and inundation durations of the hardest hit regions are provided, which will aid the prevention and mitigation of storm tide inundation hazard and future coastal management there. Keywords Storm surge · Inundation · Risk assessment · Tropical cyclone intensification · Sea level rise
1 Introduction Storm surge caused by tropical cyclone (TC) is one of the most hazardous events for coastal zones. Superimposing over the astronomical tide, it has produced devastating damage in low-lying areas worldwide in history [1]. Although the operational forecast of storm tide (nonlinear superposition of storm surge and astronomical tide) has made a great progress in the past decades, a few individual disastrous storm events still caused extensive damages recently, say, TC Haiyan in
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Jiachun Li [email protected]
1
School of Civil Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
2
Beijing’s Key Laboratory of Structural Wind Engineering and Urban Wind Environment, Beijing 100044, China
3
Key Laboratory for Mechanics in Fluid Solid Coupling Systems, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
4
School of Engineering Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
2013 resulted in 6300 dead and 1061 missing in Philippines alone [2]. Inundation is one of the most catastrophic consequences in a storm tide ev
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