Optimizing the Redevelopment Cost of Urban Areas to Minimize the Fire Susceptibility of Heterogeneous Urban Settings in
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH PAPER
Optimizing the Redevelopment Cost of Urban Areas to Minimize the Fire Susceptibility of Heterogeneous Urban Settings in Developing Nations: a Case from Mumbai, India Vaibhav Kumar 1 & Santanu Bandhyopadhyay 2 & Krithi Ramamritham 3 & Arnab Jana 1 Received: 29 March 2020 / Revised: 9 June 2020 / Accepted: 17 June 2020 # Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020
Abstract Heterogeneous and mixed urban forms profoundly influence fire susceptibility. Planning interventions to achieve fire resilience in urban areas are often not prioritized, primarily due to lack of analytical evidences. This paper proposes a novel analytical framework to reduce the fire-susceptibility in urban areas through optimal and cost-effective redevelopment of the existing UBFs. The framework includes a linear regression model to estimate the relationship between the fire-susceptibility of an area and the built-up spaces at a granular scale. A linear optimization model is incorporated in the framework to minimize the financial expenses, incurred during the redevelopment, for the reduction in fire-susceptibility of a city. The applicability of the framework is demonstrated through four different redevelopment scenarios of the southern part of Mumbai city. Pareto optimal solutions for various desired conditions of fire-susceptibility and population are determined. The results suggest that redesigning the urban settlement could lead to a significant decrease in susceptibility while catering larger population. The illustrated cases suggest medium and high rise buildings as the prime constituent to accommodate less susceptible larger populations in cost-effective ways. The outcomes suggest separate urban compositions for redevelopment scenarios, which make the approach suitable for informed decision making. Keywords Urban fire events . Urban built form modeling . Fire resilience . Optimization of redevelopment cost . GIS
Introduction The risk of “Fire” has been ranked fifth in the latest Indian risk survey report (FICCI and Pinkerton 2017). The fire
* Arnab Jana [email protected] Vaibhav Kumar [email protected] Santanu Bandhyopadhyay [email protected] Krithi Ramamritham [email protected] 1
Centre for Urban Science & Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
2
Department of Energy Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
3
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
incidents not only resulted in heavy economic losses but also results in significant loss of lives. As many as 17,700 people in India died which is 48 people every day due to fire accidents in 2015 (National Crime Records Bureau 2015). Mumbai, a cosmopolitan city was found to be one of the most fire-prone city with maximum fire incident cases. The city also observed a 40% rise in high-intensity fire cases during the year 2016–2018 (TNN 2019; Chaitanya Mallapur 2019). After witnessing the increase in the severity of fire incide
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