Our Renewable Future Laying the Path for 100% Clean Energy
The next few decades will see a profound energy transformation throughout the world. By the end of the century (and perhaps sooner), we will shift from fossil fuel dependence to rely primarily on renewable sources like solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal
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		    Our Renewable Future
 
 Our Renewable Future Laying the Path for 100% Clean Energy
 
 By Richard Heinberg and David Fridley
 
 Post Carbon Institute Santa Rosa, California
 
 Washington | Covelo | London
 
 Copyright © 2016 Post Carbon Institute All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher: Island Press, 2000 M Street NW, Suite 650, Washington, DC 20036 ISLAND PRESS is a trademark of the Center for Resource Economics.
 
 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016931452 ISBN-13: 978-1-61091-779-7 (paper) ISBN-13: 978-1-61091-780-3 (electronic) Printed on recycled, acid-free paper
 
 Manufactured in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
 
 Keywords: Biomass, cap and trade, carbon capture, carbon tax, coal, consumerism, electric cars, electricity, energy efficiency, energy grid, energy storage, energy supply, fossil fuels, geothermal, gross domestic product, hydrogen, hydropower, industrialization, natural gas, net energy, nuclear, oil, petroleum, photovoltaic cells, renewable energy, solar, solar panels, wind, wind turbines
 
 Contents
 
 List of Figures and Table
 
 xi
 
 Acknowledgments
 
 xv
 
 Introduction
 
 1
 
 How “Normal” Came to Be
 
 4
 
 Why a Renewable World Will Be Different
 
 7
 
 Overview of This Book PART I.
 
 11
 
 The Context: It’s All About Energy
 
 Chapter 1
 
 Energy 101
 
 13 15
 
 What Is Energy? The Basics of the Basics
 
 16
 
 Laws of Thermodynamics
 
 16
 
 Net Energy
 
 18
 
 Life Cycle Impacts
 
 21
 
 Operational versus Embodied Energy
 
 22
 
 Energy Resource Criteria
 
 24 vii
 
 viii
 
 Contents
 
 Chapter 2.
 
 A Quick Look at Our Current Energy System
 
 Growth Energy Rich, Energy Poor Energy Resources End Use PART II
 
 Energy Supply in a Renewable World: Opportunities and Challenges
 
 Chapter 3. Renewable Electricity: Falling Costs, Variability, and Scaling Challenges Price Is Less of a Barrier Intermittency Storage Grid Redesign Demand Management Capacity Redundancy Scaling Challenges Lessons from Spain and Germany Pushback against Wind and Solar Chapter 4.
 
 Transportation: The Substitution Challenge
 
 Electrification Biofuels Hydrogen Natural Gas Sails and Kites Summary: A Less Mobile All-Renewable Future Chapter 5. Other Uses of Fossil Fuels: The Substitution Challenge Continues High-Temperature Heat for Industrial Processes Low-Temperature Heat Fossil Fuels for Plastics, Chemicals, and Other Materials Summary: Where’s Our Stuff?
 
 35 36 37 40 41 45 47 48 51 53 59 62 65 69 74 78 81 83 85 89 91 91 92 95 95 102 106 112
 
 Contents
 
 ix
 
 Chapter 6. Energy Supply: How Much Will We Have? How Much Will We Need?
 
 115
 
 Energy Returned on Energy Invested of Renewables Building Solar and Wind with Solar and Wind Investment Requirements The Efficiency Opportunity: We May Not Need as Much Energy Energy Intensity The Role of Curtailment and the Problem of Economic Growth
 
 117 119 121 124 126 128
 
 Chapter 7.
 
 What About . . . ?
 
 Nuclear Power Carbon Capture and Storage Massive Technology Improvements PART III.
 
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