Our Renewable Future Laying the Path for 100% Clean Energy
The next few decades will see a profound energy transformation throughout the world. By the end of the century (and perhaps sooner), we will shift from fossil fuel dependence to rely primarily on renewable sources like solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal
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Our Renewable Future
Our Renewable Future Laying the Path for 100% Clean Energy
By Richard Heinberg and David Fridley
Post Carbon Institute Santa Rosa, California
Washington | Covelo | London
Copyright © 2016 Post Carbon Institute All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher: Island Press, 2000 M Street NW, Suite 650, Washington, DC 20036 ISLAND PRESS is a trademark of the Center for Resource Economics.
Library of Congress Control Number: 2016931452 ISBN-13: 978-1-61091-779-7 (paper) ISBN-13: 978-1-61091-780-3 (electronic) Printed on recycled, acid-free paper
Manufactured in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Keywords: Biomass, cap and trade, carbon capture, carbon tax, coal, consumerism, electric cars, electricity, energy efficiency, energy grid, energy storage, energy supply, fossil fuels, geothermal, gross domestic product, hydrogen, hydropower, industrialization, natural gas, net energy, nuclear, oil, petroleum, photovoltaic cells, renewable energy, solar, solar panels, wind, wind turbines
Contents
List of Figures and Table
xi
Acknowledgments
xv
Introduction
1
How “Normal” Came to Be
4
Why a Renewable World Will Be Different
7
Overview of This Book PART I.
11
The Context: It’s All About Energy
Chapter 1
Energy 101
13 15
What Is Energy? The Basics of the Basics
16
Laws of Thermodynamics
16
Net Energy
18
Life Cycle Impacts
21
Operational versus Embodied Energy
22
Energy Resource Criteria
24 vii
viii
Contents
Chapter 2.
A Quick Look at Our Current Energy System
Growth Energy Rich, Energy Poor Energy Resources End Use PART II
Energy Supply in a Renewable World: Opportunities and Challenges
Chapter 3. Renewable Electricity: Falling Costs, Variability, and Scaling Challenges Price Is Less of a Barrier Intermittency Storage Grid Redesign Demand Management Capacity Redundancy Scaling Challenges Lessons from Spain and Germany Pushback against Wind and Solar Chapter 4.
Transportation: The Substitution Challenge
Electrification Biofuels Hydrogen Natural Gas Sails and Kites Summary: A Less Mobile All-Renewable Future Chapter 5. Other Uses of Fossil Fuels: The Substitution Challenge Continues High-Temperature Heat for Industrial Processes Low-Temperature Heat Fossil Fuels for Plastics, Chemicals, and Other Materials Summary: Where’s Our Stuff?
35 36 37 40 41 45 47 48 51 53 59 62 65 69 74 78 81 83 85 89 91 91 92 95 95 102 106 112
Contents
ix
Chapter 6. Energy Supply: How Much Will We Have? How Much Will We Need?
115
Energy Returned on Energy Invested of Renewables Building Solar and Wind with Solar and Wind Investment Requirements The Efficiency Opportunity: We May Not Need as Much Energy Energy Intensity The Role of Curtailment and the Problem of Economic Growth
117 119 121 124 126 128
Chapter 7.
What About . . . ?
Nuclear Power Carbon Capture and Storage Massive Technology Improvements PART III.
Pr
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