Performance and estimation of solar radiation models in state of Minas Gerais, Brazil
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Performance and estimation of solar radiation models in state of Minas Gerais, Brazil Angélica Carvalho Cunha1 · Luís Roberto Almeida Gabriel Filho2 · Adriana Aki Tanaka3 · Fernando Ferrari Putti2 Received: 26 May 2020 / Accepted: 25 August 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Solar radiation is one of the most important meteorological variables, as it is directly related to evaporation. Based on this variable, it is possible to develop models for estimating meteorological elements. However, when there is lack of data, estimates can be made using mathematical models. The objective of this paper was to perform the calibration and statistical performance evaluation of fifteen simplified models of global solar radiation estimation based on air temperature for 51 cities in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The data were provided by the National Meteorological Institute using Automatic Meteorological Stations (EMA’s) located in the cities studied. The performance indexes used were the Coefficient of Determination for Linear Regression (R2), Root-Mean-Square Error and Mean Relative Error, and the Willmott d Index. Through the results obtained, it is possible to observe that the model with the best performance for the state of Minas Gerais was that of Donatelli and Campbell, because, based on the statistical analysis and ordering of the indexes, that is, the use of the position values (Vp) of the indicatives statistics to classify and define the best method for estimating global radiation, this model was the one that obtained the lowest Vp value. Keywords Global solar radiation · Simplified models · Donatelli and Campbell
Introduction Agriculture plays a strategic role in Brazilian economic development. In addition to the economy, it has also contributed to the reduction of poverty and inequality in Brazil (Berchin et al. 2019). The Brazilian agricultural sector is characterized by modernity and dynamism (Garcia and Vieira Filho 2014; Meyer and Silva 2019; Meyer and Braga 2019). The state of Minas Gerais is described as having a vast climatic diversity (Antunes 1986; Dubreuil et al. 2019), with * Fernando Ferrari Putti [email protected] 1
School of Agronomy, José Rosário Vellano University (Unifenas), Rodovia MG 179, Km 0, Alfenas, MG 37132‑440, Brazil
2
School of Sciences and Engineering, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Rua Domingos da Costa Lopes 780, Tupã, SP 17602‑496, Brazil
3
School of Agronomy, Rural Federal University of Pernambuco (UFRPE), Rua Manuel de Medeiros, 98‑402, Recife, PE 52171‑900, Brazil
four main characteristics: humid tropical savanna (Aw), dry climate with summer rains (BSw), rainy temperate (Cwa) and subtropical altitude (Cwb), according to the Köppen climate classification (Souza et al. 2006). Minas Gerais is a state that has significant importance in Brazil’s agricultural economy. In 2017, agribusiness accounted for 33.54% of the state’s GDP and had a 13.59% share of the Brazil’s GDP. The predominant culture in Minas Gerais is coffee,
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