Possible earthquake forecasting in a narrow space-time-magnitude window
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Possible earthquake forecasting in a narrow space-time-magnitude window K. Florios 1,2 & I. Contopoulos 3 & G. Tatsis 4 & V. Christofilakis 4 & S. Chronopoulos 4 & C. Repapis 1 & Vasilis Tritakis 1,3 Received: 11 June 2019 / Accepted: 28 September 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract We analyzed an extended time series of Schumann Resonance recordings with two multi-parametric statistical methods, the generalized linear Logistic Regression—LogReg and the non-linear Random Forest—RF, in order to test their potential for earthquake prediction within a narrow time-space-magnitude window of 48 h, 250 km from our observing site, and events higher than magnitude 4 of the Richter scale. The LogReg method identified the power of the signal within our 10-min recording intervals as the main seismic precursor parameter. The RF method obtained promising results that will improve with continuous enrichment of the running data sample with new data. We conclude that a systematic analysis of Schumann Resonance recordings may lead to satisfactory levels of seismic prediction. Keywords Schumann resonances . ELF electromagnetic emissions . Earthquake precursors . Logistic regression model . Random Forest model
Introduction Earthquakes (hereafter EQ) are among the most catastrophic natural disasters that cause great cost in human lives, public infrastructure, and private property. Reliable EQ prediction is still questionable, with currently no foreseeable breakthroughs. The Service of Civil Protection from Natural Hazards would benefit greatly from the ability to locate with a significant level of confidence the epicenter, the magnitude and the time of occurrence of a forthcoming EQ. Otherwise, a prediction without a significant level of confidence may have some scientific but not practical interest. Social and economic
Communicated by: H. Babaie * Vasilis Tritakis [email protected]; [email protected] 1
Mariolopoulos-Kanaginis Foundation for Environmental Research, Patriarchou Ioakeim 30-32, 10673 Athens, Greece
2
Department of Mathematics, University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis Zografou, 15784 Athens, Greece
3
Research Center for Astronomy and Applied Mathematics, Academy of Athens, Soranou Efesiou 4, 11527 Athens, Greece
4
Electronics-Telecom. and Applications Lab, Physics Department, University of Ioannina, Panepistimion Ioanninon, Ioannina, Greece
life cannot cease based on rumors and rough inferences. Several attempts for short-term EQ prediction have been proposed by researchers from various branches of science, but their results remain not generally accepted. Long-term research on a robust EQ prediction method has led to a very interesting conclusion. A potential EQ prediction method is not only a problem of classic seismology, but also a more general problem of several other branches of physics. In particular, precursors of forthcoming seismic activity appear mostly in areas far from classical geophysics and seismology, namely in atmospheric elec
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