Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting: The Frank Evison Volume II
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Previously published in Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH), Volume 167, Nos. 8–9, 2010
Birkhäuser
Editors Martha K. Savage Institute of Geophysics Victoria University of Wellington Wellington New Zealand [email protected]
Matthew C. Gerstenberger GNS Science Lower Hutt New Zealand [email protected] David Vere-Jones Statistics Research Associates PO Box 12649 Wellington New Zealand [email protected]
David A. Rhoades GNS Science Lower Hutt New Zealand [email protected] Euan G.C. Smith Institute of Geophysics Victoria University of Wellington Wellington New Zealand [email protected]
ISBN 978-3-0346-0499-4 DOI 10.1007/978-3-0346-0500-7
e-ISBN 978-3-0346-0500-7
Library of Congress Control Number: 2010929575 © Springer Basel AG 2010 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifi fically the rights of translation, reprinting, re-use of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms fi or in other ways, and storage in data banks. For any kind of use, permission of the copyright owner must be obtained. Cover illustration: Composed of Fig. 1 from “Forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes: an analysis and verification” fi by A. R. Scherbakov, D. L. Turcotte, J. B. Rundle, K. F. Tiampo and J. R. Holliday (Evison Vol. I) and of Fig. 12 from “New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre” by M. C. Gerstenberger and D. A. Rhoades (Evison Vol. II). Printed on acid-free paper Springer Basel AG is part of Springer Science+Business Media www.birkhauser-science.com
Contents 1
Introduction M.K. Savage, D.A. Rhoades, E.G.C. Smith, M.C. Gerstenberger, D. Vere-Jones
5
First Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment D. Schorlemmer, J.D. Zechar, M.J. Werner, E.H. Field, D.D. Jackson, T.H. Jordan, and The RELM Working Group
23
New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre M.C. Gerstenberger, D.A. Rhoades
39
The Area Skill Score Statistic for Evaluating Earthquake Predictability Experiments J.D. Zechar, T.H. Jordan
53
Space–Time Earthquake Prediction: The Error Diagrams G. Molchan
65
Identifying Seismicity Levels via Poisson Hidden Markov Models K. Orfanogiannaki, D. Karlis, G.A. Papadopoulos
79
Distribution of Seismicity Before the Larger Earthquakes in Italy in the Time Interval 1994–2004 S. Gentili
105
Predicting the Human Losses Implied by Predictions of Earthquakes: Southern Sumatra and Central Chile M. Wyss
113
Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results J. Van Aalsburg, J.B. Rundle, L.B. Grant, P.B. Rundle, G. Yakovlev, D.L. Turcotte, A. Donnellan, K.F. Tiampo, J. Fernandez
125
Spatial Separation of Large Earthquakes, Aftershocks, and Background Seismicity: Analysis of Interseismic and Coseismic Seismicity Patterns in Southern California E. Hauksson
145
Earthquake Source Zones in Northeast India: Seismic Tomography, Fractal Dimension and b Value Mapping P.M. Bhattac
