Prediction model for gray leaf spot disease of fodder Sorghum
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Prediction model for gray leaf spot disease of fodder Sorghum Nitish Rattan Bhardwaj1 · Ashlesha Atri2 · Upasana Rani2 · Ajoy Kumar Roy1 Received: 1 July 2020 / Revised: 1 September 2020 / Accepted: 8 September 2020 © Indian Phytopathological Society 2020
Abstract Gray leaf spot (caused by Cercospora sorghi Ellis & Everh.) is one of the most destructive foliar disease in fodder sorghum. Prediction model for gray leaf spot disease in fodder sorghum was developed based on 10-year (2010–2019) disease and weather data. It can occur during week-29 (third week of July) to week-43 (last week of October) in a year. Gray leaf spot had very strong, significantly negative correlation (r) with weekly average temperature (r = − 0.77), while moderate correlation was found with weekly average relative humidity (r = − 0.41), rainy days (r = − 0.44), sunshine hours (r = 0.35) and wind speed (r = − 0.36). Rainfall (r = − 0.29) and evaporation (r = − 0.23) had low correlation with gray leaf spot severity. Prediction model was developed using multiple regression coupled with goodness of fit statistics using R2 and Akaike information criteria (AIC). The prediction model included weekly average temperature, relative humidity and rainy days as predictor variables with R2 and AIC value of 0.70 and 819.03 respectively. The model was validated using leave one out cross validation (LOOCV) strategy and difference between observed residual root mean square error (RMSE) and as predicted using LOOCV was taken as indicator of model accuracy. Residual RMSE was 12.05 while that predicted through LOOCV was 12.46, indicating that model will perform fairly well on an independent data set. This prediction model can be used for efficient prediction to manage gray leaf spot disease of fodder sorghum. Keywords Fodder · Sorghum · Gray leaf spot · Prediction model
Introduction Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench.) is an important food and fodder crop grown in dry tracts of India, China and tropical Africa (Rooney and Waniska 2000). In India, among various fodder crops, sorghum occupies first position in terms of area and is grown in 2.6 million hectare (mha) area out of total area of 8.3 mha under fodder cultivation (Anonymous 2013). Sorghum production is reduced by several foliar diseases including gray leaf spot (caused by Cercospora sorghi Ellis & Everh.) which is highly damaging under favorable environmental conditions (Pande et al. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s42360-020-00278-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Nitish Rattan Bhardwaj [email protected] 1
ICAR-Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute, Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh 284003, India
Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab 141004, India
2
1993; Dalmacio 2000; Frederiksen 2000; Mathur and Bunker 2002). C. sorghi primarily survives as mycelia in host residues and on weed hosts. Conidia act as initial source of inoculum and are disp
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