Principles of Performance and Reliability Modeling and Evaluation Es

This book presents the latest key research into the performance and reliability aspects of dependable fault-tolerant systems and features commentary on the fields studied by Prof. Kishor S. Trivedi during his distinguished career. Analyzing system evaluat

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Lance Fiondella Antonio Puliafito Editors

Principles of Performance and Reliability Modeling and Evaluation Essays in Honor of Kishor Trivedi on his 70th Birthday

Springer Series in Reliability Engineering Series editor Hoang Pham, Piscataway, USA

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/6917

Lance Fiondella Antonio Puliafito •

Editors

Principles of Performance and Reliability Modeling and Evaluation Essays in Honor of Kishor Trivedi on his 70th Birthday

123

Editors Lance Fiondella University of Massachusetts Dartmouth Dartmouth, MA USA

Antonio Puliafito Università degli studi di Messina Messina Italy

ISSN 1614-7839 ISSN 2196-999X (electronic) Springer Series in Reliability Engineering ISBN 978-3-319-30597-4 ISBN 978-3-319-30599-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-30599-8 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016933802 © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland

Non soffocare la tua ispirazione e la tua immaginazione, non diventare lo schiavo del tuo modello. (Do not stifle your inspiration and your imagination, do not become the slave of your model.) —Vincent Van Gogh Sbagliando si impara -proverbio italiano (You learn by making mistakes -Italian proverb)

To my wife Maria and my beloved children, Carlo and Andrea, for their unconditioned love. To my friends, colleagues and students representing the second half of my existence. —Antonio Puliafito

—Lance Fiondella

Contents

Part I

Phase Type Distributions, Expectation Maximization Algorithms, and Probabilistic Graphical Models

Phase Type and Matrix Exponential Distributions in Stochastic Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Andras Horvath, Marco Scarpa and Miklos Telek An Analytical Framework to Deal with Changing Points and Variable