A Practical Method for Rapid Assessment of Reliability in Deep Excavation Projects
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RESEARCH PAPER
A Practical Method for Rapid Assessment of Reliability in Deep Excavation Projects Arefeh Arabaninezhad1 · Ali Fakher1 Received: 5 October 2019 / Accepted: 1 October 2020 © Shiraz University 2020
Abstract Many reliability analysis methods require complicated mathematical process or access to comprehensive datasets. Such shortcomings limit their application to solve the geotechnical problems. It is of advantage to develop simpler reliability analysis methods that can be employed in the design of geotechnical structures. The current study suggests a simple framework for quick reliability analysis of deep excavation projects in urban areas, which is a common geotechnical problem. To investigate the feasibility of the presented method, five case studies were considered. It is worth mentioning that the horizontal displacement at the crest of excavation was set to be the main system response. For verification purposes, the results were compared to the random set, point estimate and Monte Carlo methods results, which are also used for reliability analysis of geotechnical problems. All case studies were recognized as projects of high importance and monitored during the excavation process. The field observations confirmed that the estimated probabilities of excessive deformations were reasonable for all cases. Comparing the modeling results and field measurements suggests the feasibility of the presented method for evaluating the reliability of deep urban excavations and estimating the horizontal displacement at the crest of excavations. Keywords Deep excavation · Monte Carlo simulation · Random set finite element method · Reliability analysis · Point estimate method · Uncertainty
1 Introduction 1.1 Review of Conventional Reliability Analysis Methods in Geotechnical Engineering The uncertainty caused by soil properties poses a major challenge in geotechnical problems. Soil is variable, and its variability is not necessarily considered in the design procedure. Addressing uncertainty does not increase the level of safety, but allows a more rational design while the designer can calibrate the decisions based on the desired or required Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s40996-020-00499-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Ali Fakher [email protected] Arefeh Arabaninezhad [email protected] 1
School of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
performance level of a structure (Uzielli et al. 2006). The outcome of reliability analysis methods could be used to assess the reliability of the design and system performance. Common deterministic design approaches assign only one constant value to each input variable and one constant threshold value to control the design. Hence, they are not the most appropriate methods to be applied to most geotechnical problems, where the uncertainty in soil properties is noticeable. The professional engineers need the reliability methods to assign differe
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