A Two-Stage Optimization Model for Large-Scale Group Decision-Making in Disaster Management: Minimizing Group Conflict a
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A Two‑Stage Optimization Model for Large‑Scale Group Decision‑Making in Disaster Management: Minimizing Group Conflict and Maximizing Individual Satisfaction Qifeng Wan1 · Xuanhua Xu1 · Xiaohong Chen1 · Jun Zhuang2
© Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract As for large-scale group decision-making (LSGDM) in disaster management, the number of decision makers is so large-scale that decision-making is time consuming, but sometimes disaster management is urgent for time. Inspired by multiplayer game theories, this paper proposes a two-stage optimization model that maximizes individual satisfaction at the first stage and minimizes group conflict at the second stage. Furthermore, the introduction of public social media data to determine decision criteria and weights greatly improves the objectivity of decision-making. The proposed method effectively saves the decision time while ensuring the quality of LSGDM. The case study verifies the feasibility of the method. Keywords Large-scale group decision making · Optimization model · Disaster management · Group conflict · Social media
* Xuanhua Xu [email protected] Qifeng Wan [email protected] Xiaohong Chen [email protected] Jun Zhuang [email protected] 1
School of Business, Central South University, No. 932, Lushan South Road, Yue Lu District, Changsha 410083, Hunan, China
2
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, The State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260‑2050, USA
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1 Introduction In recent years, various natural or man-made disasters occurred one after another with an uptrend in China, which have brought enormous economic loss and serious social problems (Xu et al. 2015b). Thus, the emergency management of these disasters has drawn great attention of Chinese government, the ministry of emergency management was established in April 2018 to deal with emergency events. Emergency decision-making is a pivotal mode in disaster management and can be treated as a dynamic multicriteria group decision-making problem (Cosgrave 1996; Hao et al. 2018). However, different from the general group decision-making problems, the decision-making for disasters has characteristics of incomplete and unreliable decision-relevant information, the heterogeneity of decision makers, the complex and changeable decision-making environment, ill-defined goals, short-time period, etc. Among them, short-time period is one of the prominent features (Xu et al. 2015c, d; Hao et al. 2018). Taking “8.12 Tianjin Binhai New Area Explosion” accident as an example (Anjianzongju 2016), at 22:51:46 on August 12, one warehouse was on fire; at 23:34:06 at the same day, the first explosion happened. The time between two sub-incidents was less than 18 minutes. In actual disaster decision-making practice, large-scale group decision-making (LSGDM) is inevitable. The more serious the problem is, the more difficult it is to bear the losses caused by mistakes in decision-making, people are more inclined to choose to involve more decision makers in d
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